This is a followup to the OT Ford Mach-E EV post, and I beg your pardon. I really shouldn't write about this this morning. But I can't help myself...I need to vent.
Here's the short version. As you've probably heard, the government, at both the State and Federal level, wants to sweeten the deal for people buying EVs. So they offer consumer incentives in the form of rebates and tax credits. (As of this year, the Federal tax credit can be applied to the price of an EV immediately at the point of sale, by the dealer, so it's easy now.) In my State the incentives max out at $7,500 Federal and $2,000 State. There are a few conditions, mainly to benefit American car companies and lessen our dependency on China.
So the government wants to give me $9,500 to help me buy a Ford EV. Nice of them, huh? And guess how much the Mach-E qualifies for?
...In most cases, $500. I didn't skip a zero there—five hundred dollars. The other nine grand? Ford doesn't mind if you and I miss out on that.
G O O D L O R D. Talk about shooting themselves in the foot! Ford pours resources and engineering into building an all-new, from-the-ground-up EV, and then they don't even ensure that their customers can avail themselves of the free money the government is giving away. What?!? Really? That has got to be one of the most self-defeating business blunders ever. If you were designing a car from scratch, and the government had designed a program specifically to help you succeed, wouldn't it be "Job One" to absolutely ensure that your car qualifies for the monetary incentives your customers will be eligible for?
Of course, it's a little more complicated than that. The government did change the rules midstream in January '23—the Mach-E qualified for half the Federal incentive before that—and the lowest model configuration of the car does qualify for the whole two grand from the State. It's all the higher models that only qualify for $500. Furthermore, a used EV that costs less than $25k qualifies for $4,000 in Federal tax credits, regardless of where it was made and what kind of batteries it has. (But there are no State rebates for used EVs.) A few of the early cars have already dipped into that range, and more will follow as time passes. And, Ford was planning to build its own LFP battery plant in Michigan, which would have solved the problem—but apparently it has put those plans on the shelf because of short-term consumer hesitancy.
Ah, what a clusterf--k.
Anyway, in 2022, when the Mach-E qualified for half the Federal sweetener and was still newish, it outsold the gasoline Mustang—in fact, in April '22, Ford suspended orders, citing excessive demand. In 2023, U.S. sales (now with zero Federal rebate) only rose slightly, from roughly 39,000 to around 41,000. But how are you going to apportion the blame for that? Some of it has to be due to the denial of the subsidies. Why would you buy Car B if it meant leaving $9,500 on the table, vs. Car A which allows you to have that money? There was also a very costly recall of early cars that might have dampened Ford management's enthusiasm for the whole project. That's partly what you get for starting at the top end, rather than the low. Maybe Ford should have built a cheap EV at the same time. (Reminds me of Kyocera's star-crossed attempt to build a deluxe 6-MP Contax DSLR, the full-frame N Digital, before the timing was right. It wasn't "the" camera that killed Contax—there were several factors—but it was the biggest.) Still, the Mach-E is currently either No. 3 or No. 4 on the list of the best-selling EVs. The first two places are held by Teslas, which qualify for all of the available government incentives.
No such thing as range anxiety
Meanwhile, two little morsels I stumbled across in my research (you know me—it's been all EVs all the time for the past several days). They give opposite perspectives on the the issue of range anxiety. The first from a guy who's making a road trip from L.A. to Phoenix and the second from a guy who charges a daily driver, a Tesla, at home.
1: A wonderful rant by Matt Farah of The Smoking Tire about "infrastructure anxiety." Start watching at about 12:00 and go to about 14:30. This is worth hearing. (Note that the sound is not properly sync'd.)
2: From a comment by a Tesla owner who goes by the name @MH-Tesla:
"Oh, and it's full every day I wake up, like having a gas pump at your home. So the one and only thing a gas car is superior at is long road trips.
"I thought the charging was going to be the thing I disliked the most. Turns out it's the best part of an electric car. Unless you do that road trip, you don't even think about range. It doesn't enter your thinking. You just use your car without a thought to 'do I have enough gas / range.' You always have enough every day so you quickly get used to not thinking about it. It's awesome."
"Like having a gas pump at home." We don't hear enough about that. In my area, you can get free electricity in the middle of the night if you are using it to charge an EV, and you can sign up to get all your electricity from local solar fields whether you have an EV or not.
Anyway, the Mach-E gets shunted to the long list of expensive cars I like but can't afford, and to say I am disappointed is an understatement. (I've really caught the jones for that car.) Well, those grapes were probably sour anyway. But supposedly the Chevy Bolt is being redesigned and re-engineered for a 2025 or 2026 return, and will reportedly be at the cheaper end of the price range for EVs. We'll have to wait and see if that will be true—and whether the GM managers have enough sense and direction to give their customers a crack at that free money.
Mike
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Featured Comments from:
Stephen S.: "I used to live in a condo near downtown Toronto, Canada, and they announced a plan for electric car charging in the underground parking: residents would have to pay up to $30,000 to get a charger at their parking spot, and the building could only support half of the parking spots having chargers, so everyone was encouraged to secure their spot for the future, or risk losing out forever. It sure made it look like the future was that EV ownership only for those who owned a house, and that half of the condo residents would have to give up driving entirely if internal-combustion vehicles were ever outlawed. This was not at all encouraging."
Tom Stermitz: "Yes, pay attention to the rebates, whether Federal, State, dealer or manufacturer. The Hyundai/Kia group doesn't qualify for the Federal rebate because the batteries are not U.S.-made, but the manufacturer matches the $7,500. Thanks to the supply-demand-inventory distortion of the moment, I got $17,500 off my Kia EV6.
"Secondly, pay attention to lease vs. purchase cost over the life of the deal. Leased EVs get the Federal rebate regardless of battery origin—assuming the dealer passes that on to you. This is such a good deal, that over half of the EVs sold right now are leased.
"Thirdly, pay attention to your local off-peak electric costs. My 7.5 cents means that I pay $2 per 100 miles. My electric bill went up $20/month, but my fuel cost went down $200/month.... I commute about 1,200–1,500 miles per month....
"Fourth, don't forget the little things like purchase sales tax, yearly registration and monthly insurance. These cars are tech-heavy, and a broken rear-view mirror or bumper probably includes broken cameras or sensors."
John Camp: "One of the odder and yet more intriguing speculations about why 'we're alone' in the Universe—that is, we've never found a sign of life outside the solar system—is that advanced civilizations hit a 'great filter' that destroys them, and maybe their worlds. That always seemed unlikely to me, as surely some advanced civilizations would avoid the filter. But perhaps there are several filters to avoid, and we're approaching one. One of the more ignored thoughts about global warming is that there is an enormous (truly enormous) store of methane in the northern tundra of Canada and Russia. When that begins to melt, the amount of warming gases entering the atmosphere will increase exponentially. We can probably handle 130 degrees in Scottsdale and Austin with air conditioning. Can we handle 200 degrees in Minneapolis?
"Also, to the people who argue that energy generation is energy generation, and that going to EV cars is simply moving pollution from one place to another...no it isn't. The difference is, power plants are single-point sources. There is available (if expensive) tech that will sequester CO2. But how do you do that from millions of tiny point-sources, like cars. And the answer is, you can't. If we really want to control CO2 emissions, we need EV cars and nuclear, wind and solar."
Mike replies: Wind is already 10% of utility-scale electricity generation in the U.S., and the total of renewable sources is 21%, which exceeds the percentage for nuclear (source). Worldwide, the situation is better, with more than a quarter of power generation being from renewables according to the United Nations (source). One nice thing about renewables is that you can scale those down to point-sources (as you call them)—I have a number of friends who run their homes on solar, and one who runs his house on solar and has enough power left over to fuel his Nissan Leaf.
Cars are also an excellent solution to the problem of how to store solar energy! Millions of little mobile batteries can do what large-scale storage ideas can't.