Deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 fell to 479 in the week ending March 9th, the lowest level since before the first spike began in late March 2020.
That's compared to about 270 deaths a week or two ago from flu (down from this season's peak of 866 in the first week of January) and the weekly average of 700 deaths from fatal traffic accidents.
COVID-19 was the largest death event in American history so far. Its current 1,184,376 U.S. total surpasses the influenza epidemic of 1919, which caused approximately 620,000 deaths, and the American Civil War, in which approximately 650,000—850,000 Americans lost their lives. This last figure is according to the modern J. David Hacker estimate, usually expressed as the median of 750,000. The traditional William F. Fox estimate published in the year 1900 put the number at just under 620,000. Regardless of which estimate is used, more Americans died in the Civil War than in all of America's other wars (and wars since 1945 undeclared by Congress) combined. The 1919 "Spanish Flu," despite its name, most likely originated in the United States, and got carried to Europe by soldiers leaving to fight in WWI. Unlike most such viruses it mainly attacked healthy young adults, especially young pregnant women. Most COVID-19 deaths were of people over the age of 50, with progressively older people dying in increasingly larger numbers. We need to pray that the next lethal virus doesn't disproportionately affect children.
COVID-19 mortality tends to come in waves, however, as is reflected in the graph of weekly deaths:
However, the last three peaks, as you can see, were all relatively mild, and the most recent one is the mildest yet. If they continue that way, it would appear that the pandemic is effectively over in the United States, in terms of overall numbers and in terms of its dangers, said with due respect and condolences to its recent, current, and future victims and their loved ones. The virus might simply be adapting. After all, the 1919 Spanish Flu is still around. You might have had it. It has simply mutated over the years into a less lethal form, for its own survival.
Mike
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Featured Comments from:
Gary Merken: "Notwithstanding the raw numbers of deaths from the influenza epidemic, the Civil War, and COVID-19, it would be interesting to know the percentage of the U.S. population for each death event."
Dave Fultz: "As requested by Gary Merken, The U.S. population in 2019 was 333,000,000. The COVID-19 death toll was 1,184,376; therefore the percentage of the population lost was 0.355%. The U.S. population in 1917 was 103,000,000. The Spanish Flu death toll was 620,000; therefore the percentage of the population lost was 0.6%. The U.S. population in 1860 was 31,400,000. The Civil War death toll was ≈750,000; therefore the percentage of the population lost was 2.388%."
Mike adds: Evaluating these events as percentages of total population is another way of looking at it, of course, but I don't think it's inherently any more or less accurate. Looking at it that way, the worst war in North American history was King Philip's War in 1675–76. King Philip, whose real name was Metacom or Metacomet, was the son of Ousamequin of the Wampanoag tribe, known to history as Massasoit, a title meaning great sachem or chief. Metacomet's War, initiated by the natives, resulted in the virtual extermination of the Narragansett and Wampanoag. Grievous destruction was also visited on the colonies. Settlers were attacked and killed and the frontier pushed back; twelve towns, including Providence, Rhode Island, along with many smaller settlements, were burned. One out of ten able-bodied men (i.e., who could serve as soldiers) in the involved colonies were lost. This meets the literal definition of "decimated," which means to kill one out of every ten.
King Philip's War caused the death of the largest number of "Americans" (English colonists in America) as a percentage of total population. But the initial size of the colonial army was 1,000 white men and several hundred native allies. So although it was the worst war, it wasn't the worst war, if you see what I mean.
Adrian: "Yes, but does long COVID also come in waves, or is it long enough on average that the active cases monotonically increase, so that at some point all of humankind will be crippled (extreme scenario, admittedly)? Moreover, will people who encountered the virus early in their lives do better than those who were older at the time the virus emerged (wet market? lab? we’ll never know) in 2019? If the young exposures do better, COVID may exacerbate the ills of societies where fewer and fewer active young people support a growing cohort of disabled old.
"COVID-19 is less than five years old, so despite the unprecedented (no hyperbole) speed and success with which vaccines and Paxlovid were developed, projecting that it is going to be progressively milder is wishful thinking. It might become another irritant, or it might remain a major cause of morbidity. The pathogen certainly is morally indifferent, so it will keep killing and crippling preferentially those who ignore precautions."
