Okay, clickbait title. At least I hope it is. I try.
But take it as a serious question. Of course "photography" has to mean photography as we once knew it, because virtually everyone in the First World is equipped with a camera as matter of routine nowadays. According to Pew Research and others, almost 90% of Americans now own a smartphone. Another 7–8% own cellphones. (I presume they're counting only adults.) Everyone takes and shares pictures now. Photography certainly isn't ending in that sense; it's taken off like a rocket.
That doesn't mean that photography "as we knew it" can't get functionally obliterated by the ubiquity of smartphones, although that's probably a conversation for a different day. The vast torrent of new pictures—above a billion daily just in the US, by most estimates—has many implications, including a.) that no one person can be familiar with more than a minuscule fraction of all the photographs being made, meaning that no one, not even a professional curator, has a reasonable understanding of the directions and accomplishments of photography as a whole any more; and b.) photographing is fast becoming nothing special or distinctive simply because everyone does it, about like everyone eats, breathes, and poops. It's a part of daily existence and fast becoming nothing at all special. Photographers used to be respected, because, through hard-won skill and knowledge and practice, they could do things ordinary people couldn't. But the status of having specialized knowledge and skill has been evaporating for years now. Paralleling that decline is a decline in the in the need to hire a photographer for a wide array of once-common needs. In the late '80s I was charging $670 for a portrait sitting plus $80 per print. Now, I literally can't give away portrait sittings for free half the time. People take their own portraits now.
Then there's the camera industry. For decades it was a truism that "the mass market" supported the makers of the high-end equipment that art photographers, professionals, and photojournalists wanted. And it did, once upon a time. No longer. Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Oppo, ZTE, Vivo, LG and Alcatel own the mass market now, and none of them are doing anything to support lower-end consumer ILCs (interchangeable lens cameras), much less helping Nikon produce Z camera lenses or subsidizing Fuji's interchangeable-lens medium-format cameras. Camera companies have been disappearing for years now and there are for all practical purposes only five of them left: according to Statista, Canon, Sony, Nikon, Fuji and Panasonic account for 94% of ILCs sold today, all the other surviving brands sharing the meager remaining six percent. And shipments of digital still cameras declined from 121 million units in 2010 to just eight million in 2021, a decrease of 93%. And nearly all of those eight million are hybrid cameras, video having become a significant driver of both interest and sales to today's buyers, as well as a locus of technological development and innovation for the manufacturers.
Hard-won culture
As far as some of the other features of the old culture of photography, built up so painstakingly from the beginnings through the advent of affordable digital cameras, I don't have facts and figures at my fingertips. These include museum and gallery shows and sales, books, and printmaking, and the art market.
The practice of "art photographers" (usual disclaimer: I use the term as a description, not a claim) building up a CV based around shows, sales to museums and private collections, teaching and lectures, awards and honors, and published articles about the photographer or the work used to be common enough that the nuts-and-bolts of it was part of a class about the business of photography that I took as a senior in art school. So do photographers still strive to advance their work by dropping off portfolios of prints at galleries and museums for review? I'd have to talk to gallerists and museum curators to get a handle on whether this is more or less common than it was forty years ago, but I have my suspicions.
Peer-to-peer and peer-to-public sharing of deliberate bodies of work through books seems less necessary now than it was when photography was on the rise as an art form. I've seen no sign that interest in photobooks has diminished; it's quite possible more are being published now than ever before. But I do get the sense that books are more often considered artworks in themselves, with many of the creators maybe falling into the category of "artist" rather than "photographer" and the individual photographs in them perhaps becoming less primary, and I would guess that printing runs are getting smaller and smaller. I'd have to talk to photobook publishers to take the temperature of this aspect of the culture of photography.
Prints. The vast majority of photographers three-quarters of a century ago shot B&W negative film, meaning that pictures required the making of a physical print just to be viewable. Making a print was required in order to share the picture with others. Prints were what we shown and shared. Now, if a photograph existed only as a paper print, it would virtually be a way of hiding it from view. My most popular picture on Flickr (itself not considered a very prominent site, not like Instagram) has just over 77,000 views. Even if I were honored with a full show of custom exhibition prints at a prominent museum—say, the George Eastman Museum, which is local to me—do you think 7,000 people would see it? I doubt that very much. (Again, I'd have to ask the staff at the museum what they believe the average attendance to be.) And how many enthusiast photographers still make their own fine prints, or have fine prints made? As insufficient as it is to view a picture as an online JPEG rather than as a fine print made by a master printmaker, the percentage of photographers who have good prints made is likely in steep decline, I believe. Again, I haven't done the actual research.
A consideration of the art market—which for all practical purposes requires objects to function—wouldn't be out of place here either, but I don't have time.
That sinister elephant
And then there's the elephant in the room: the recent phenomenon of AI. Digital eroded the essence of photography, because it was so much more easily faked and doctored; but there was at least the potential for it to continue to be a record of the lens image, with its understandable connection to the world of appearances, if the operator was honest and worked in a culture which encouraged honesty, such as traditional, edited photojournalism. But AI is the danger inherent in digital suddenly exploding to a nightmare level, and it could be a disaster for any number of areas of photographic culture that were previously still struggling to survive. Just a week ago, in the post about audio speakers, I showed an example of a real-world advertising pastiche that was based on AI. That's something that a professional photographer would have had to shoot, and be paid for, in times gone by. No more. Before the pandemic I asked a professional I know how he was doing, and he told me he cleared $80k the year before. "That's not so bad," was my comment, to which he said, "Yes, it is, because I used to clear $240k a year." That's about to get worse. Thank goodness it's still easy to recognize AI when you look for it; I hope against hope its flaws are inherent in it and it never gets any better, although that seems very unlikely.
And if digital quietly eroded public support in the veracity of photography, its ability to serve as a witness, AI, if it gets a lot better, will obliterate it.
In sum: the art, craft, and business of photography as we once knew it is in considerable decline, in terms of status and stature, practice, reward, it's place in society, and in its conceptual underpinnings. Things look grim.
Don't despair
I have to break this off, because the insistent needs of the blog format mean I simply have to get something up before breakfast—there hasn't been a new post since Saturday, and there must be. And, um, it's almost 1:00 p.m. and I'm hungry. So I don't have time to finish this now. As I always say, this stuff doesn't write itself, and I watch myself getting slower as I get older. But don't despair just yet—and don't condemn this post for being one-sided until you read the other side. There's good news, too. I'll show you the sunny side of all this, and explain why it's not really a disaster, sometime within the next week.
Mike
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Featured Comments from:
Tex Andrews: "Re 'So do photographers still strive to advance their work by dropping off portfolios of prints at galleries and museums for review? I'd have to talk to gallerists and museum curators to get a handle on whether this is more or less common than it was forty years ago, but I have my suspicions.' Got news for you (I work at the Hirshhorn, and my wife at the Baltimore Museum of Art; I'm in the Exhibits Department, she was a registrar and now a curator—a rare bird!): Not only is this not true for art photographers, it's not true for any artists anymore. It's harder now to get your work in front of 'the people that matter' than it has ever been."
Paul Martini: "'The ease with which we can make a superficial image often leads to creative disaster.' —Ansel Adams."
Doug Anderson: "I look forward to reading the good news! My take on the situation is pretty much what you have described so far."
JOHN B GILLOOLY: "The beginning of this post echoes the sentiment I have had this month while photographing two PGA events (professional golf) in Chicago, Illinois, and Greensboro, North Carolina. The layers of redundant coverage of everything is a bit disheartening. Almost any significant moment that you photograph is also being photographed and recorded by multiple others with varying skill and equipment levels. The premium in terms of media distribution is certainly speed. I am almost never shooting for media purposes so I am not part of that, but it still has greatly eroded any sense of capturing something 'special.' That represents the erosion of the personal fulfillment side of this equation.
"On the other hand, my business as a commercial photographer is thriving. Demand is steady and even growing and rates are also steady and/or rising. So I felt the need to buffer my frustration and discontent with the reminder that I am a commercial photographer doing this work for a living. I can, and must, be an artist on my own time."
Paul: "The ever-changing world. Which side of the proverbial fence? It really does not matter as we all have to adapt. This argument could be made about most everything and likely has been made since the beginning of time and evolution. That said, I still prefer much of the "old days" and my view considers both nostalgia and romanticism."
Rob de Loe: "You offer a realistic assessment. I've come to the same conclusion. There are a lot of people who still enjoy cameras and lenses, who like making photographs, and who appreciate good photography. But the number is dwindling. Eventually those of us remaining will be like the folks who still practice large format film photography. There are some young whippersnappers in that community, but mostly I think we're down to people who have been doing it seriously for a long time and simply enjoy the process.
"A related trend, which I think you recognize in your post, is the huge gulf that has opened up between the above crowd (enjoys cameras and lenses, likes making photographs, appreciates good photography) and 'artists who use photographs.' Talk about Mars and Venus. The artists who use photographs will be fine because it doesn't look like they're too fussed about things that excite photographers. So how is this not depressing? I suppose if you're willing to just make photographs for yourself and your own enjoyment, you'll be fine. Mind you, with all the billions of photographs being made every day, that's all we're doing anyway, so it won't be a big adjustment."
Lee Rust: "The internet and digital devices have upset just about every traditional aspect of modern life. Photography is everywhere all the time these days, but 'famous photographers' seem to be a thing of the past. Now that anybody can instantly broadcast their images or videos worldwide with the flick of a finger, who needs a gallery? 'Going viral' seems to be the new 'getting famous.'"
John Krumm: "Your coming 'sunny side' follow-up immediately made me think of Monty Python's 'The Bright Side of Life.' We are indeed in weird camera and photography times. I think the decline of photography as a hobby is related to the decline of all hobbies, to the very idea of hobbies. You have to hope that in 30 years we won't be limited to phones, an ever declining used camera supply, and sad go-fund-me garage-made cameras cobbled together with security camera parts."
psu: "The answer is no."
Sean: "Not according to Betteridge's Law of headlines, which states: 'Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word 'no.'"
Jim Arthur: "Amateur photography as we knew it is dead because of its cost and complication. A smartphone is easy to use, can be inexpensive, and is incredibly useful. Camera companies are now trying to automate their complex cameras with additional in-camera processors for AI based autofocus and other computational features, but they can’t compete with the convenience of the smartphone. Once we began to network computers, everything changed…everything sped up…and today in 2023 the modern mirrorless camera remains isolated.
"Today, a twenty-year-old with a smart phone in his pocket has no need to buy a still camera, video camera, stereo, calculator, etc., and if a compromise in the quality of these items is needed to gain the incredible convenience of the smartphone, that’s OK because the device will likely be improved next year. Technology and automation won’t be slowing down anytime soon but I expect quality cameras and lenses to remain available for folks like us for as long as they remain viable tools. For example, you can still spend hundreds of dollars on a Starrett dial caliper when cheap digital Bluetooth calipers are also available."