UFOs Do Exist (OT)

The Northrop Tacit Blue used to be a real UFO. Not any more, though.

I apologize! I didn't mean to leave the "Aliens" post at the top of the page for two days. TypePad's compositor was down for unscheduled maintenance yesterday smack dab in the middle of the time I had blocked out for writing. And I promise, this will be the last post on this topic.

As far as aliens are concerned...well, that was very interesting! Thanks to all those who commented. As I often say, I learn more from you than you do from me. However, people have been sending me links to UFO sightings and to various arguments about the existence of flying saucers and so forth—I know you're being kind and helpful, but please, no need. It's not really an interest of mine. No one cares about my beliefs about this, of course, and that's all they are, beliefs—but my personal beliefs are as follows: the chance that there is no life elsewhere in the universe is zero; as far as technological civilizations that we would recognize as such on other worlds, the chance that have existed or do exist in other solar systems is 100%; the chance that we will ever make contact with an alien civilization with which we can communicate is zero; the chance that any observed UFO is in any way connected to extraterrestrial civilizations is zero; and the chance that human life (even over many generations) will ever travel even one light-year is zero. Well, maybe I'll say that last one is infinitesimally above zero, as a nod to Ben Marks. He's right that the past cannot even imagine the future. Heck, it took me a while to wrap my mind around the WWW when I first experienced it.

If you have different beliefs, rock on. You don't have to convince me of yours and I won't convince you of mine.

However, do you remember our friend Dave Levingston? I wrote this about him during his last visit: "In his work life, Dave was a civilian Public Affairs official for the Air Force. An interesting part of his purview was that if you called Wright-Patterson AFB looking for information about UFOs, Dave was a guy you might end up talking to." It turns out that ET enthusiasts who sense that the Air Force is keeping secrets are correct. However, it's not what they think. Can you imagine catching sight of a stealth bomber before it was introduced to the public? You might call the Air Force, and they would be evasive about it, and you might come away thinking there's something they're not telling you. So, are there UFOs in the skies of America? You betcha. There always are. However, Occam's Razor applies. Occam's Razor is basically as follows: "when you hear hoofbeats, don't think zebras."

At the Air Force Museum in Dayton, there's an airplane on display called Tacit Blue. From the front, Tacit Blue looks like an artist's conception of a flying saucer; from the side, it's shaped like a fat stogie. It doesn't look much like a plane. It was an early-eighties development mule for the stealth warplanes and various battlefield sensor systems. The Air Force flew it mainly at night so it couldn't be photographed, out of an Air Force base that didn't exist, by pilots who weren't on record at the time. And guess what? A common description people gave for UFO sightings in those years was that it was something "cigar shaped."

One of Tacit Blue's nicknames was "the alien schoolbus." If you'd spotted it in the sky in the years before it was declassified, you would have seen, yup, a real, honest-to-Uncle-Sam UFO.

So what's up there now? Something is. A select few people know, but they're certainly not telling. When you hear hoofbeats, though, it's probably a horse.

Mike

Original contents copyright 2023 by Michael C. Johnston and/or the bylined author. All Rights Reserved. Links in this post may be to our affiliates; sales through affiliate links may benefit this site. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. (To see all the comments, click on the "Comments" link below or on the title of this post.)

Featured Comments from:

Bryan Geyer: "Very well said, Mike, but when you're visiting California's Hearst Castle, those hoofbeats are most certainly not horses...."

Mike replies: Okay, then maybe it should be, "when you hear hoofbeats, don't think onager." (An onager is an undomesticated Asiatic wild ass.)

Ernest Zarate (partial comment): "This at least can have the charm and delight of childhood imagination. Aliens from other parts of our solar system/galaxy/universe come in a myriad of shapes, sizes, colors, intentions, and results on us. Well, why not? They can be malevolent, benign, evil, helpful, hellbent on our utter destruction, offering a helpful hand to our woebegone world, utterly indifferent to our struggles, and many other shades of…us. Like our gods, we draw from what we know best: us. And we use that knowledge of us (flawed as it is) to create kind, or mean, creatures from other worlds. I can’t blame us—what else are we going to use? Just like those of the past can’t imagine the future, we humans are poorly equipped to imagine any kind of being other than us, here and now. But, as I said, as far as tinfoil hat fantasies go, this one is pretty innocent, and has created some enjoyable flights of fantasy in literature, film, TV, and storytelling. So, if it floats your boat, go for it. That’s my belief."

Marcelo Guarini: "Here is a nice, interesting opinion: 'Most Aliens May Be Artificial Intelligence, Not Life as We Know It.'"

Mike replies: Fascinating. Thanks.

Mike Plews: "For many years my conception on the solar system was strongly influenced by one of those mechanical models that seemed to show up in about every junior high school in the country. They had plenty wrong with them. Circular orbits and scale being the principal issues. I am delighted at the idea that if they were built to scale, Pluto would be seven miles away, and that's just our solar system. I am sure we are not alone, but also equally sure that I won't be shaking tentacles with any aliens soon. Love it, don't know if it's true but I did see it on the internet so it is probably true. ;-) "

Jim Arthur: "Your mention of Dave's role as a Public Affairs official reminded me of a comedic episode of an old TV show called The X-Files. In this episode, Alex Trebek and Jesse 'The Body' Ventura roam the country working as Men in Black. Their job is to 'educate' folks who claim to have seen a UFO. I have to wonder, does Dave own a black fedora or drive a vintage Cadillac? Just curious.  :-)  "

Mike replies: Come to think of it, fedora, check; Cadillac, yes...OH...MY...GOD!!!

Ed Kreminski (partial comment): "I have run into way too many folks in the medical system that would do better at diagnosis if they didn’t always assume that lower percentage chances of disease presentation were always zero. Apparently they all got the Occam’s Razor talk as residents."

DavidB: "A lot of advanced aircraft testing takes place in Nevada. Some of these locations are within range of several weather surveillance radars. We could tell when they were flying because they would throw a lot of Electronic Counter Measures (e.g., chaff) in the air as well as pushing out signals that would interfere with our radar. Using a few different radars, you could triangulate on where the activity was taking place."

Albert Smith: "I was in the US Air Force and worked in flight test back when many aircraft that we all know about now were still secret. The real 'UFO' false identification champion was the at the time unknown to the public F-117. The jet was flown from a site that was at the time not so well known (now the Discovery Channel has 10 shows a week about it) and mostly at night. In silhouette, the black F-117 could take on the classic saucer shape when seen head on or from the rear.

"I was able to see the Stealth Fighter while still in the development stage, so we knew how chance sightings could be interpreted by the general public. False UFO reports were better than having a program become public before it should. My time in this job made me less likely to believe in actual extra terrestrial visitors. I believe in the potential based simply on the math, just that they're not flying around on this planet mutilating cattle and abducting hillbillies."

Dan Khong: "If your 'Aliens' post had stayed there any longer, we would have had to assume that it caught the attention of one of them inhabitants of one of them 100 billion stars. Then one came in one of those crafts that look like the one above and took you away."

Mike replies: I'm still here, for now, but yesterday during my writing time, TypePad was down, and today, again during my writing time, we had a power outage for no apparent reason....

Lothar Adler: "Isn't it strange that your June 10 Aliens report prompted more interest and comments, 72 by today's count, than the June 8 Pentax Monochrome report, 16 comments? Does that tell us anything? And if so, why not....  :-)  "

Mike replies: No, actually that's very predictable. A new and unforeseen topic often generates a lot of response because it hasn't been discussed here and there's been little opportunity for readers to share opinions on that subject. (Although I think I've asked people for sci-fi book recommendations before.) Whereas, with other subjects and digital B&W in particular, we've kinda done it to death around here and everyone has had multiple opportunities to hear my opinion and share theirs.

Comments

[Yonatan Katznelson]

I didn't get to comment on the previous post, so here goes... My favorite opinion on the subject is (to paraphrase Calvin [& Hobbes? —Ed.])...that the sign that intelligent life exists is that they haven't tried to contact us.

[Ed Kreminski]

I’ve seen that aircraft at the WPAF Museum and my little kids (at the time) exclaimed “That’s a UFO!!!”
Occam’s Razor ain’t what it used to be ... https://bigthink.com/life/california-zebras-hearst-castle/#:~:text=Thanks%20to%20some%20unexpected%20similarities,zebra%20herd%20outside%20of%20Africa.
I have run into way too many folks in the medical system that would do better at diagnosis if they didn’t always assume that lower percentage chances of disease presentation were always zero. Apparently they all got the Occam’s Razor talk as residents.
Intelligent alien life surely exists somewhere in our vast universe. The distance/time differential makes it extremely unlikely we’ll ever talk to them in real time. Will we find evidence of their existence? I’m sure we will eventually.
🖖 EdK

[James Bullard]

You and I are on the same page regarding UFOs. I totally agree.

[Ernest Zarate]

Like other conspiracy theories, this is a silly thing. Flat earth, JFK, etc…. All these theories are the pursuits of minds with a lot of time on their hands (excuse the mixed metaphors).

But, this one at least can have the charm and delight of childhood imagination. Aliens from other parts of our solar system/galaxy/universe come in a myriad of shapes, sizes, colors, intentions, and results on us.

Well, why not? They can be malevolent, benign, evil, helpful, hellbent on our utter destruction, offering a helpful hand to our woebegone world, utterly indifferent to our struggles, and many other shades of… us.

Like our gods, we draw from what we know best: us. And we use that knowledge of us (flawed as it is) to create kind, or mean, creatures from other worlds. I can’t blame us - what else are we going to use?

Just like those of the past can’t imagine the future, we humans are poorly equipped to imagine any kind of being other than us, here and now.

But, as I said, as far as tinfoil hat fantasies, this one is pretty innocent, and has created some enjoyable flights of fantasy in literature, film, TV, and storytelling. So, if it floats your boat, go for it.

That’s my belief.

[Ken]

"When you hear hoofbeats, though, it's probably a horse."

Unless you're in the Serengeti?

[Mike Ferron]

Looking at that machine makes me think you should write a post on drones!

[Stan B.]

I know no one will be convinced by anything I have to say, granted- but I really wish that they would listen to and read the reports of countless military and commercial pilots, police and military officers, astronauts and government officials worldwide- before off handedly dismissing any and all reports and witnesses as conspiracy theories and whackos. That does not serve their particular argument well. Again, these are the most trained of observers, some whom can recognize just about any aircraft flying in our skies today. And yes, 95% of all UFO sightings are ultimately explainable by non extraordinary means- but at least give military and commercial pilots the benefit of the doubt to distinguish a true arial anomaly from... the planet Venus! That's just common sense. A noted Japanese pilot (along with his copilot and engineer) flying a 747 cargo plane (JAL 1628) stated that were 3 UFO's, one the size of 2 aircraft carriers shadowing his every move; these are the kind of reports that cannot, should not be casually dismissed. Those who do the research know that is but one of numerous, credible reports from the most reliable of observers.

Still, some people insist on their childish fantasy that if UFO's are "real" (as in extraterrestrial, or interdimensional)- why don't they land on the White House lawn? These very same people are no doubt ignorant of the fact that multiple UFO's buzzed the Capitol building on two consecutive Saturdays in July of 1952 as reported in The Times Herald. A commercial airliner spotted them, they were observed on both military and commercial radar, interceptors were deployed the second time when up to twelve flew past and at least one those interceptors spotted them while futilely pursuing.

Our very best scientists can't even tell us what over 95% of our own universe is made of- and yet, and yet, we continue to make the most definitive statements about said universe that we know next to nothing about with the utmost of confidence! Oh yes, aliens certainly may exist, but there too far away, way too far away, don't ya know? Well, yeah, if you're prone to believing commonly spewed... conspiracy theory- no one can even come close to 'proving' that particular, oft repeated little maxim that so many take to heart as very sage wisdom. Well, yeah if one thinks that an advanced species is going to embark on an antiquated linear trajectory using the most inept and primitive form of transportation- rocketry.

Yes, UFO world is full of kooks and zanies of all descriptions, no doubt- and our government depends on them to keep our eye off the ball, one couldn't ask for a better cushion of plausible deniability! Once past the smoke and mirrors, you get to some very credible people, and then you may start to ask the most important questions: why are these entities here, and how is our government interacting with them?

Right now, David Grusch, a former 14 year, US Intelligence official who led analysis of unexplained anomalous phenomena in the DOD (and whose 2022 performance eval reported him as "an officer with the strongest possible moral compass") has stated (at considerable personal risk) that we are in possession of alien craft and pilots, and has turned over illegally withheld documentation to Congress. Jonathan Grey, a current US intelligence official at the National Air and Space Intelligence Center backs him up and Karl E Nell, a retired army colonel, states that he is “beyond reproach”. We'd do well to listen to what this man says- or simply dismiss him as yet another in a long line of... UFO Whackos!

[You keep putting that word in my mouth. I didn't call anyone a whacko. --Mike]

[c.d.embrey]

Recommend ScFi.
Snow Crash - Neal Stephson- 1992 490pages. A predicted look at the present.

Anything by William Gibson. The Sprawl Triology was a good read. Gibsons books are written as part of a series.

c.d.embrey

[Moose]

'However, Occam's Razor applies. Occam's Razor is basically as follows: "when you hear hoofbeats, don't think zebras."'

This is a misuse/misunderstanding/oversimplification of Occam's Razor. From E. Britannica:

It is about evaluating theories of causality.
'Occam’s razor, also spelled Ockham’s razor, also called law of economy or law of parsimony, principle stated by the Scholastic philosopher William of Ockham (1285–1347/49) that pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate, “plurality should not be posited without necessity.” The principle gives precedence to simplicity: of two competing theories, the simpler explanation of an entity is to be preferred. The principle is also expressed as “Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity.”'

Or, more straightforwardly,
"In philosophy, Occam's razor is the problem-solving principle that recommends searching for explanations constructed with the smallest possible set of elements. It is also known as the principle of parsimony or the law of parsimony.
- Wikipedia"

Your example posits a theory, "Hoofbeats alone are sufficient to indicate that horses are coming."

In E. Africa, that is not a useful, accurate theory. In the American South and West, it may mean mules. It is thus overly parsimonious, insufficient to the purpose.

Yes, I know, a common and useful trope in casual thought, but not a useful example of Occam's Razor.

Interestingly, to folks like me, Occam's Razor is only useful in a singly determined universe. In an over determined universe, it fails.

In an under determined universe, it also is of no use. For example, in his book A Different Universe (Reinventing Physics From the Bottom Down), Nobel winning physicist Robert B. Laughlin concludes that reductionism is dead, that important properties of matter above the atomic level are emergent; that they cannot be derived from quantum mechanics, and simply exist, without cause.

I'm far from capable of arguing this position. But, if he is right, then we live in an under determined universe and Occam's Razor is of limited use.

Oh philosophy, oh physics . . .

[MikeR]

Kind of both off and on topic:
Years ago (like, the 1950s and 60s) I read every bit of sci-fi that Robert A. Heinlein had written. Some of his novels were in what he or his publisher called the "future history" series. It's astonishing how many things he wove into the fabric of his stories while not focusing on them, just treating them as matter-of-fact, have come to pass. Recent AI and facial recognition come to mind. Manufactured "meat."
His own racist and radical political views also came through, though by the time I hit my 40s, I had lived long enough, read enough, experienced enough, that I easily could recognize them. Still, well-written books.

[Stan B.]

Did not, by any means, intend or try to put that on... you- simply not in your nature! It's just one of the more oft used pejorative terms used whenever said topic is up for 'discussion.' I tend to use it for all the irony it entails when associated with those who for all other practical purposes would be regarded as veritable pillars of society and well beyond reproach.

[No worries, Stan. I know you're one of the good guys. --Mike]

[MikeR]

I've liked this very short story from the time I first encountered it.

http://www.terrybisson.com/theyre-made-out-of-meat-2/

How WOULD an AI interact with us?

[Patrick Perez]

The X-Files episode Jim Arthur references was titled: Jose Chung's From Outer Space. It had a Rashomon story structure, and the original planned casting for Jesse Ventura's Man in Black cohort was indeed going to be Johnny Cash, who had to bow out due to scheduling (the song Ring of Fire is heard in the background early in the episode). Alex Trebek was cast as an in-joke because David Duchovny had recently been on a celebrity themed episode of Jeopardy.

Patrick

[Dean Johnston]

Hi.

I was very surprised by this post.

Not because of the post's content, but because it was suddenly there - it's the last one. I'm 'up to date,' having just played catch-up over the last wee while with all of 2023's posts to date.

But of course, that means I'm also not up to date. With the last week's worth of work...

Oh well.

Cheers,
Dean

[David B.]

Surely WE are the aliens: someone arrived, spliced their DNA with earth creatures, and buzzed off again.

We're what's left behind.