Thanks for all the thoughts on phones. It's pertinent to photography, as these are now our point-and-shoots and our pocket cameras. To me they've never replaced larger cameras and are unlikely to do so—but then, I was using an Olympus XA in 1982 along with my Contax SLR, when digital was just a gleam in our friend Steve Sasson's eye.
By the way, did you know the XA was designed by none other than Yoshihisa Maitani (1933–2009), the father of the Olympus OM system?
As I was saying: we use phones as our point-and-shoots and pocket cameras. They are better now than ever before, closer to the ideal. The handy, pocketable, carry-everywhere, easy-to-operate camera has been one of the longtime themes in the history of cameras, traceable back many decades.
True reform stems from the root
As to Robin's claim that I am remorselessly ruining the planet by seeking to wantonly discard my five-year-old iPhone 7, no fair! I just live in society, I don't direct it. Solutions need to be systemic. I believe, for example, that the root of America's political problems is that we've allowed individual wealth to get out of hand, which in turns allows a tiny minority of individuals to have undue influence over how society is run, and that all of those problems would be solved in a single stroke by limiting individual wealth to the equivalent of $38 million in today's money, per Thomas Piketty. That's what I mean by a systemic solution. And I believe most (no longer all, sadly) environmental and extinction problems would be solved—or would have been solved, shall we say—by capping world population to the sustainable carrying power of the planet, which to a good educated guess is about 1.5 to 2 billion people alive at any one time.
Unfortunately both these systemic goals appear rather difficult to achieve. By anyone, but especially by yer li'l ol' and exceedingly 'umble Ed.—as noted above, I have not yet been put in charge.
I'm just a guy who has a smartphone, like 85% of Americans over the age of 12. And am trying to figure out when to replace it. I've kept my old one for five years, or 60 months; Internet says users in Great Britain hold on to their smartphones for the longest time of any people in the developed world, and the thrifty Brits keep theirs an average of 27.7 months. Although that figure comes from before the pandemic. Plus, I think I should get extra credit for the fact that I never discard an old TV, on account of I don't own one.
In any event, I don't think I am the most suitable poster boy for the environmental problem where phones are concerned. I agree with Robin in spirit, though.
Readers homed in on one of the factors affecting my personal decision, which is that I have at least a modest obligation to be up on current camera technology in contemporary phones*. But there's one more, which is that I use the phone for a lot of the pictures I post on TOP. For instance the picture at the top of the recent post about Bill's book Eleventyone Portraits 1841–1950. With a maximum size of 800 pixels wide per the blogging software I use, even the phone is overkill, really. So it's a business necessity for me, a tool I use for working. That still doesn't mean I need a new phone camera, because actually I don't, but it's a consideration.
Behind the curtains
Re the state of the market, here is my guess as to what's going on. Apple has been working on a phone with a dramatically improved camera, sometimes referred to, as Kent pointed out, as the 2H22. It's probably intended to offer a leap in performance on the order of what Apple achieved with the recent M1 chip.
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, quoted at MacRumors: "In terms of pixel size, the iPhone 12, iPhone 13, and new 2H22 iPhone are about 1.7um, 2um, and 1.25um, respectively. We believe that the new 2H22 iPhone may support direct 48MP output and 12MP (four cells merge output mode) output simultaneously. With 12MP output, the CIS [CMOS image sensor —Ed.] pixel size of the new 2H22 iPhone increases to about 2.5um, which is significantly larger than the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13, and larger than existing Android phones, and close to the DSC [digital still camera —Ed.] level. We believe that the camera quality of the new 2H22 iPhone will elevate mobile phone camera photography to a new level."
So my guess is that originally that camera was slated to appear with iPhone 13, and that's why people were suggesting upgraders should wait for the iPhone 13; but the new technology, whatever it may be, is not ready for prime time yet, so Apple issued a rather tepid incremental update and called that iPhone 13 instead. But really, iPhone 13 is only "just noticeably" better than iPhone 12.
Those are guesses. Please don't give me credit for having an oracular crystal ball. As you know the psychic convention was cancelled due to unforeseen events.
Significantly degraded
In any event, it's reasonable for me to consider myself a candidate for an upgrade. As a number of readers pointed out, in the past Apple has generally assumed a 5-year lifespan for its phones, after which a.) the battery begins to fail (mine is at 77% of original capacity and fading fast. The phone itself tells me, "Your battery's health is significantly degraded"); b.) OS updates won't be applicable; and c.) security updates won't apply. Apple is already not accepting iPhone 7's to become factory refurbs, and is no longer offering refurbed 7's for sale on its website. OS 15 however will work on my iPhone 7 Plus, and apparently the security updates will continue to be supported for another year. Have I got all that right? So presumably I could wait for iPhone 14.
It's still not a straightforward decision for environmental best practices, however. If I replace the battery, the new replacement battery will need to be discarded relatively soon, with most of its useful life ahead of it. After all, I'm certainly not going to be able to keep using the old phone for another five years. Surely old batteries are a big part of the environmental impact of discarded phones?
Again as a number of readers pointed out, my phone is nearing the end of its planned lifecycle. Soon, all of those things I mentioned will render it obsolete. In the sense that it will continue to turn on and make pictures and calls, it will presumably remain viable for a while after that...
...But perhaps not viable for me, considering that I use it for my work and that I should stay abreast of developments, thus to avoid hastening my own obsolescence unduly. I'm becoming irrelevant fast enough as it is! Well, at least to cute young women.
I shall not want
One last point, though, on the question of "want vs. need" which several people brought up. I never actually want to replace my computer devices. I waited until the last minute to replace my antiquated iPad, and only did so because I had to; I've only owned three iPhones, in total, ever; and, in its box, I still have my mid-2011 27" iMac sitting here, which I used daily for seven years. (Want it? It's been refurbished and cleaned and has had a clean install of a new OS.) So I'm not a "churner" of computer devices. My rather chicken-hearted philosophy is, if all the magic computer-y stuff is working, don't rock the boat.
I have no talent for computers, never have had, and I consider the whole claptrap shebang to be precariously balanced at the edge of collapse on any given day...even if it isn't. If everything's functional to some reasonable approximation of the word, just tiptoe around and don't disturb anything. I never want to mess with it, much less replace it.
It's just that sooner or later you have to.
Mike
*I mean really...how would you feel if you knew a tech writer who still listened to vinyl records, drove a car with a manual transmission, wore a wristwatch, didn't own a TV, and amused himself by playing a physical game popular in the 19th century rather than video games like everyone born in this century?
Er, wait, never mind.
Product o' the Week:
The brand new 2021 Apple 10.2-inch iPad (Wi-Fi, 64GB) in Space Gray. My iPad is my least necessary but most-loved Apple device. I could get by with my phone and a desktop computer, but I use this constantly and I like it best. Check out that price.
The above is a link to Amazon from TOP—anything you buy while you're there benefits TOP. B&H Photo is closed for the rest of September for Succos.
Original contents copyright 2020 by Michael C. Johnston and/or the bylined author. All Rights Reserved. Links in this post may be to our affiliates; sales through affiliate links may benefit this site. As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases.
(To see all the comments, click on the "Comments" link below.)
Featured Comments from:
Aaron: "'Whose fault is it?' with respect to systemic issues can be understood as a collective action problem in ethics. If one person cuts across the grass, no harm done. But, if all of us cut across the grass we wear a path. Whose fault is it? All of us? But, no one individual of us caused the path. If none of us individually are at fault, how can all of us be at fault? So, none of us are at fault? But, clearly if we hadn't cut there would be no path. So...?
"It's not only abstract or theoretical. On the one hand one individual blogger won't contribute to climate change or excessive trash. On the other hand, if he's one of lots and lots and lots of people 'walking across the grass' does he bear some responsibility? This is a mostly consequentialist way of thinking about this—wrong is conceived in terms of bad outcomes. But, there could be nonconsequentialist ways of thinking of it. Perhaps we simply have a duty not to waste irrespective of whether the outcomes are trivial. Or, perhaps we should cultivate virtues like thriftiness and moderation? All in all, I think holding on to a phone for five years is pretty good—and pretty good is better than bad. So, go for it."
Peter: "I think, after this explanation, we all can approve your request for acquiring a new iPhone."
Wait, I resemble that. Here is another reader who listens to vinyl records, shifts his own gears in the car, cooks food the slow way on a stove with heat, and even takes photographs with film. And I also do not update my mobile phone until the old one is barely working. I must be a socialist or a communist or something because I don't support the consumerist society.
Posted by: Kodachromeguy | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 12:06 PM
[does anyone know what "CIS pixel size" means? I don't. —Ed.]
CMOS Image Sensor
[Thanks Ned. Fixed now. --Mike]
Posted by: Ned Bunnell | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 12:32 PM
I still have two of those Xa's --one with at the equally elegant flash (X11?) Amazing what you consider its size and that it was "Full Frame"
and had a great 35mm lens. There were two an F/2.8 , and a 3.5, both of mine are the 3.5. A beautiful little camera.
Posted by: Michael Perini | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 12:50 PM
I don't carry a cell phone. It's not very long ago that I got a cordless phone for my landline. However, I gave up on my film camera for a simple digital one.
From my website address, you can tell that it dates from the unix based system of the 1990s.
Posted by: Herman Krieger | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 12:57 PM
Hm, I kept my last Android smartphone for 10 years. Recently (3 years ago) I got my wife‘s iPhone. As a camera it is only usable in bright sunlight. A face in shadow is only one noisy mess.
Being reasonably healthy and stubborn I carry a Nikon Z7 now as „go everywhere“. MF if on a shooting trip. I hope I can manage maybe further five years.
What I use my iPhone for though is Internet and Emailings on the road. The screen has become rather small for my aging eyes, so the new iPad has woken my interest. I have lots of rucksacks…
Posted by: Robert | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 01:21 PM
"I mean really...how would you feel if you knew a tech writer who still listened to vinyl records, drove a car with a manual transmission, wore a wristwatch, and amused himself by playing a physical game popular in the 19th century rather than video games like everyone born in this century?"
Don't forget the old-fashioned whole food diet, too. Goodness, it may be time to change the name of your blog to The Online Hipster. Obsolete? You were cutting edge for some time, but now I'm afraid you're slipping toward merely fashionable.
Re the phone/camera question: After responding to your previous post, it struck me that an underlying question is whether or not you wish to treat phone photography as a serious interest, eschew it altogether, or treat it as a convenience for occasional non-serious use. It sounds like you're pretty committed to the first option, though I trust that that will proceed according to the customary measured, insightful, Online Hipster method.
Posted by: robert e | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 01:22 PM
I'm not sure if we live in a world where systemic solutions will work because we can't even agree on the problems we face. I mean, anyone with any sort of scientific or (especially) medical/epidemiological background knew how the Covid pandemic could/would end by March 2020: masking and isolation where possible to reduce spread until development of vaccine followed by widespread vaccination to achieve herd immunity. How has that worked out for us?
Climate change, habitat destruction and widespread extinctions, overconsumption of resources, overpopulation... we know the problems and generally know the solutions, but a large proportion of the population (at least in the US) has been conditioned, most commonly through misinformation (i.e., lies) spread by those concerned only with their own profits, to believe that any "expert" discussing either problems or solutions is part of some nefarious conspiracy involving antifa, space lasers, 5G, nano-particles, blah, blah, blah.
We're each only one person, but the only way we're going to fix any of our big problems (unless you want to sign up for a global government led by a benevolent dictator) is one person at a time.
Posted by: ASW | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 01:34 PM
I didn't know either, but according to this: https://www.coventor.com/blog/cmos-image-sensors-cis-past-present-future/
....it stands for CMOS Image Sensor CIS, which seems really dumb because I think they use CCD for CCD's but I'm not sure. But if they followed the same logic they used to arrive at CIS for CMOS Image Sensor, The Acronym for CCD would Be ......CIS
Pretty soon Acronyms, abbreviations and made up words are going to outnumber 'Real Words". What happens then? I wonder if it is like Matter and Anti-Matter.........Boom
Posted by: Michael J. Perini | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 01:59 PM
Regarding excess wealth, my tax preparer once said to me: "No one needs more than three times the salary of a teacher to be happy." Sounds good to me.
[Similar to that is research that shows that most people do most of their indoor living in 640 square feet of space, regardless of the size of their houses. My house is 1,600 sq. ft., but I have two whole rooms I hardly ever use. I wonder how many rooms there are in Buckingham Palace into which Her Majesty has never set foot even once? My own grandfather lived in his mansion from shortly after his marriage (the house was a wedding present) to his death at 91, and only went into his basement three times in his whole life.
There's considerable research that indicates that the closer to equal a society is, the happier *everyone* is, even the richest--because when people are too rich compared to the average, they feel less involved in the society as a whole and more threatened by the have-nots. And of course limiting personal wealth to $38 million, although it would elicit frantic screaming about "socialism" from the right, isn't anywhere near actual socialism, much less to literal equality. If every citizen were guaranteed a minimum income of, say, $24,000 in today's money, and personal wealth were capped at $38m, that still leaves a huge amount of room for incentivization, reward for accomplishment, class distinction, and things like status display. --Mike]
Posted by: Jamie Pillers | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 02:08 PM
The most interesting comments on the iPhone 13 post were those that discussed Focal Length and Field of View of the various iPhone cameras.
Posted by: DavidB | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 02:16 PM
It's not all-or-none. I drive a six-speed manual-transmission car because I enjoy it. And I carry a late-model digital camera (that doubles as a phone) because I enjoy that as well.
Posted by: Speed | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 02:18 PM
Maybe you could change your iPhone region to France to see if you get a free speed bump? Apparently, due to regulation here, if you use an iPhone 7 in France, Apple can't slow it down on purpose.
Pak
p.s. I haven't tried this, but I am curious!
https://gadgets.ndtv.com/mobiles/news/iphone-slow-charging-fix-hack-faster-change-region-france-old-model-frequency-reduction-quality-apple-2519316
Posted by: Pak | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 02:28 PM
I loved my Olympus XA. I was in the Air Force in Alaska in the early '80s and had to fly back seat in jets to alert sites where we had scramble jets ready to intercept probing aircraft from our neighbor across the strait. I couldn't carry my SLR in the tight cockpit so based on some articles in various photo magazines I bought the XA. This made me realize how true that old chestnut of the best camera was the one that you have with you was. I have hundreds of beautiful Kodachrome slide from that camera from a dozen countries... because I had it with me.
Posted by: Albert Smith | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 02:35 PM
https://www.inputmag.com/reviews/iphone-13-pro-max-review-a-mighty-upgrade-thats-just-shy-of-perfect.
I read that Apple promises a fix.
Hard to imagine a photographer passing up this upgrade. I can because I don't use it that much and I've got an X which does pretty well.
Posted by: Greg | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 02:41 PM
I just upgrade from an iphone 4 to a 12 mini. Ten years with the same cell phone. It still worked as a phone. Send text messages. Play podcasts and take record shots. The battery would still hold for more than a day. I didn’t use it for anything that would require security. Infact one of the very few web sites it could load was this one. The only reason for the update is that I dropped it. Shattered the back glass and it started acting up on me. Anyway, guess it just depends what one uses a cell phone for. As a simple communication device (which is what I did) or as a hand held computer.
Posted by: Michael Dowdall | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 03:04 PM
As a XPan lover and user for 15+ years, I am almost tempted to get a One Plus 9/Pro for its new XPan mode....
Posted by: Richard Man | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 03:14 PM
If your strategy is to wait for iPhone 14, then I would do one of three things. First, consider a battery replacement for the iPhone 7; Apple charges just $49 and this will give you the ability to wait without battery worries. Second option would be to replace your current phone at lowest reasonable cost, saving dollars for the iPhone 14. Consider a refurb iPhone X or 11. From an environmental perspective, you are simply life extending an existing phone. Third, if you would only consider a new phone, opt for the iPhone SE and use the savings toward the ultimate camera iPhone of the future.
Posted by: Frank Field | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 03:26 PM
It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on a "right to repair." As you might expect, I find the current phrase "planned lifecycle" mildly repugnant given the state of our planet and the current climate cul-de-sac we face. For my money, the "planned lifecycle" of a sealed glass box with no moving parts should be on the order of 100 years. Fat chance, of course, unless you price in some of the externalities of an endless stream of consumer pre-garbage. /rant off
Posted by: Benjamin Marks | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 04:21 PM
I’m glad you mentioned population, IMO the root of a lot of issues.
We turn our back to climate change (the elephant in the corner) while the room is on fire (population).
Posted by: David | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 04:53 PM
*... I'd say that bloke was a rather interesting person. Wonder if he writes a blog anywhere? Er, wait, never mind.
Posted by: Bruce Hedge | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 05:03 PM
It is easy to solve nearly any problem. You just need to be annointed KING. I will allow myself to be crowned but you cannot question my decisions.
Posted by: Larry Sumners | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 05:19 PM
I used a Minox 35 as my travel camera when I was traveling all over the world in the late 70s through most of the 90s on business and did not want to drag around my Nikon FM.
https://www.bhphotovideo.com/explora/photography/hands-on-review/classic-camera-review-the-minox-35
I finally replaced it with a tiny 2MP Casio EX-S2 (https://www.digitaltrends.com/digital-camera-reviews/casio-exilim-ex-s2-review/)
which I carried until cell phone cameras bettered it.
Interestingly, while I had the travel cameras, I also carried a small voice recorder, a Palm Pilot for notes and calendar, and, of course, a big bulky cell phone.
All that went away with the advent of the smartphone, which as Shira Ovide at the NYTimes points out may be the ultimate personal gadget, since other choices have fizzled out. (https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=158&emc=edit_ot_20210915&instance_id=40456&nl=on-tech-with-shira-ovide&productCode=OT®i_id=44924968&segment_id=68980&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fbbd60a37-cf66-5855-bf7e-0472e0629bb6&user_id=fad2d5aebc4d367c69e282d2be4fcd18)
At first I had mixed feelings about the smartphone camera, since so much processing was done automatically, but let's face it, phone manufacturers have done an amazing job of creating an almost foolproof snapshot camera, and one with many artistic possibilities.
I believe in having a modern digital camera (I have a new Nikon Z fc) as well, but with the iPhone, I never have the excuse that I didn't have a camera with me....
Posted by: JH | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 06:10 PM
What is funny is that for the last few weeks I've been walking around with an Olympus XA in my pocket to "sketch" with in BW. Still an amazing little camera. Maitani was truly a genius.
Posted by: Steve Rosenblum | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 06:54 PM
Is it possible that you are way overthinking this? Just buy an iPhone 12 Pro or 13 Pro, and get on with your life.
Either one will take much better photos than what you have, and work better overall in ways that will surprise you.
===================
Yes, I knew that Saint Maitani designed the XA. It was the only pocket camera that worked for me. Still have two.
"As I was saying: we use phones as our point-and-shoots and pocket cameras."
Who, other than yourself, is this We to whom you refer?
"The handy, pocketable, carry-everywhere, easy-to-operate camera has been one of the longtime themes in the history of cameras, traceable back many decades."
And it hasn't gone away, at least for some of Us.
Panasonic ZS200, esentially the same size as the XA
Unless you want flash.
Hardly fatter, either. Yes it's deeper @35 mm, but only when in use, not in your pocket/bag/pouch.
But the difference if photographic Results count is stupendous! I've scanned film from mine, with a good, 4000 dpi scanner. The lens is decent, but not great. Film is limited in so many ways. Not only does the ZS200 make way better image files, it adds a really wide range of FLs.
That ". . . handy, pocketable, carry-everywhere, easy-to-operate camera" exists, in several guises.
Posted by: Moose | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 07:10 PM
Fun thing about the XA is that it has a wide angle telephoto lens. IE the lens has a wider than normal field of view but it’s focal length is longer than it’s physical length. I remember at the time it was the widest angle telephoto lens ever. It sounds like being the world’s tallest short person but isn’t really.
I tried one when it first came out and found there was something off-putting about the image quality in the corners that was sort of distracting.
Posted by: hugh crawford | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 09:38 PM
It's good to remember why I never seriously considered an XA. For a snapshot camera a 35mm lens is okay, but f/2.8 is slow for me (especially then; 2 stops slower than the normal lenses I was used to using), and then on top of that the meter only supports up to ISO 800—and I exposed at 1000-1600 a lot and at 4000 some.
It probably would have turned out to be useful if I had had one.
Posted by: David Dyer-Bennet | Wednesday, 22 September 2021 at 10:45 PM
I get your point Mike, and it's good to know what's out there and how it changes things — but I don't think of TOP as a technology blog or you as a technology writer. All the best posts are about photography — and often about the ways that photography isn't technology. I'm thinking especially about you reminding people that sharpness is just one quality pictures can have (and that more isn't necessarily better).
I'm on another forum (90% design/technology people), and interestingly noted a thread about the new iPhone where a number of people agreed that while the cameras in the 13 were better, they just weren't much fun to shoot with. Two people mentioned the new Ricoh GR as an alternative (i.e. an addition).
The people who were excited are the people who work in video. The idea of a tiny, pocketable camera that works with a prores workflow was exciting to them.
It seems to me like the still photography space is pretty mature now, technologically speaking. As the world moves on to video, my hope is that photography will become more interesting by virtue of being left to photographers (meaning, people interested in stills).
Posted by: Steve C | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 02:00 AM
My Mac Mini’s from 2011, my MacBook Pro’s from 2013, and I’m typing this on only my second ever iPhone, a 7. A canon 1Ds mk lll remains my only camera since buying it in 2008 and I haven't bought a lens since 2006. I turn 50 tomorrow, and just thinking about owning a big and shiny iPhone 13 Pro Max has me excited as a 5-year-old. But then I think of how it’ll be even older news than I’ll be when I’m 55...
Posted by: Sean | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 03:01 AM
Do not believe the 'battery is dead I need a new phone' myth. Take your phone to Apple and they will put a new battery in it. In the EU this costs a few tens of euros, and the battery is then new.
Is possible I suppose that in the US this service is not available: it might only exist because the EU forces it to. Well, if so I am sorry for you.
Posted by: Zyni Moë | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 05:29 AM
A very useful shop application on my wife's phone started to update and... stopped. That phone is no longer supported.
I hate to change phones (moving a phone book, all applications, all data) but we started to look for something new.
The old phone weighted about 130 g. and 150 is the absolute acceptable value.
And we found out, that there is NO phone younger than 2019, which would be so light.
They simply hate us.
One of candidates is... iPhone 7, which still holds the price of $500
Posted by: Janek | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 06:07 AM
It may be time to retire the “don’t own a TV” idea since you can (and probably do) stream anything - broadcast or otherwise - to your iMac, iPad, or iPhone.
Posted by: Mike | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 07:01 AM
I increasingly use my phone instead of a dedicated camera. I use it for events where I need to post to social media quickly. I use it as an image-note tool. And I use it in a variety of circumstances when I just didn't bring the larger camera. But I never say, I'm going to just bring my phone because I like shooting it so much. That's what the real camera is for.
Posted by: John Krumm | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 07:52 AM
I've been away for a week (no internet!) and missed all the input in terms of the upgrade decision. I too own an iPhone 7 Plus. Ask yourself how you'll feel with your iPhone 13 when something significantly better comes out next year. My advice is to wait. I know that I'm going to.
Posted by: Tom Duffy | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 08:09 AM
your clamshell olympus made me recall a german photographer i met in the grand canyon
she did not carry extra film, she carried extra cameras at least a dozen of these olympus cameras on straps or in pockets, in addition to her two SLRs
Posted by: craig | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 08:10 AM
I think you're right about the sustainable human population of the earth being a fraction of the current number. I think humanity will get down to that level eventually, but I'm glad I won't be around to see the transition. All of the past horrors of history combined will pale by comparison.
[It depends, I think. One idea is simply to pay women to put off having children until they are older, on a purely voluntary basis. The data shows that older women have fewer children. So if you could, say, prevent 70% of females from having children before age 24, it would lower average fertility by such-and-such a rate. The details are complicated and the math too formidable for me, but it's not above human capability, obviously. The research indicates that this might be a painless and fair way to manipulate the average number of births per woman--because you wouldn't be forcing anyone to participate, and you wouldn't even be asking women not to have children or to limit the number of children they have. Their decision to have fewer children would be a natural consequence of their age and stage in life. I read one claim that if you could stop all women everywhere from having children before age 20 or 21 or something like that, it would bring overall global population increases to a screeching halt, even in the face of increasing life expectancies.
Even if you don't like this idea, where there's a will there's a way--humans could figure out a way to engineer a net decline in population growth if we put a high enough priority on it. And it needn't involve anything immoral or radical like forced sterilization. Incentivization on a voluntary basis would be enough. The occasional woman who chose to have four children before age 20 or 14 children all told would simply be worked into the averages. --Mike]
Posted by: Clay Olmstead | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 08:14 AM
Great post and I think it may contain the best sentence of 2021:
“As you know the psychic convention was cancelled due to unforeseen events.”
Bravo!
[I can't take credit for it. A friend sent me a video of clever road signs and that was one of them. The other one I liked: "Frog parking only. All others will be toad." Har! --Mike]
Posted by: Jim R | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 08:27 AM
There are problems when mammals have offspring at young or oldish ages.
Rather than legislating for childbirth the solution is to make everyone richer as then women tend to have fewer (and later) children, which can be observed currently in many countries.
I remember reading that free school meals in developing countries cuts child labour rates and I suspect it would cut the number of women in “labour” too.
Posted by: Richard Parkin | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 12:37 PM
Population growth is already slowing, turning negative in some countries. This is a product (I believe) of an industrialized society. Look up population trends in Japan, Italy, Germany.
Posted by: Patrick | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 12:41 PM
I mentioned that I’d sold on my Ricoh GR Digital II, and the phone is the reason why.
The old Ricoh had a fairly fast, fixed, wide angle lens and a middlin’ high resolution…I think it was 10 or 12MP …sensor, albeit a dinky little 1/1.7” or 1/2.3” one.
Thing is, so does my phone. And it has a bigger display and Lightroom Mobile installed. If I’m going to carry a separate camera, it needs to do things my phone can’t, which is why I have an RX100 now.
Posted by: Tam | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 12:54 PM
Regarding sustainable human population levels levels.
What happens if a virus with the lethality of ebola learns covids trick of asymptomatic transmission?
I hope I am missing something here but this possibility has me up at night
Posted by: Mike plews | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 12:59 PM
The proven way to reduce population growth in a positive way is to raise the standard of living and education, and especially that of women and girls.
Posted by: Henning | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 02:28 PM
After all those years - and the advent of digital - that little ol' XA still looks great!
But then I would say that.
Posted by: Olybacker | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 03:12 PM
Two other things that lower the birth rate are education for girls and access to birth control. Also things that greatly improve social equity, community, creativity and per-capita productivity!
Birds, stones, etc.
Posted by: Steve C | Thursday, 23 September 2021 at 10:01 PM
I bought an Olympus XA when it first came out about 40 years ago. What it lacked in image sharpness was made up for in small size and portability. It was a true pocket camera in its day. I still have mine, but haven't used it in over 20 years.
Posted by: Mrs. Proudie | Friday, 24 September 2021 at 08:59 AM
Mike,
Think of the problems a wealth cap would cause the small jet manufacturers. You cannot run a private jet on less than $38million.
Believe me, I know this from personal experience. I have less than $38million and I cannot afford a private jet. ;-)
Posted by: James | Friday, 24 September 2021 at 09:24 AM
I have two XAs and one XA2. The latter was a gift from a dear friend, and I have not made a single exposure with it. Yet. The XAs disagree by one stop - exactly, so I use the one that I know is right because of results. I don’t think I’ll ever get rid of any of them.
I have a Twitter friend who is making cyanotypes from XA2 negatives. Yes, they’re small but they are gorgeous. The XA series was a Maitani triumph.
Posted by: Earl Dunbar | Friday, 24 September 2021 at 08:48 PM
I really can't help wondering - capping at $38m?? Seriously? And that still doesn't smack of 'more than anyone needs'? Do you know someone you'd be worried for or something? It seems a curious figure to just pluck out of the air - and I don't think you have much to fear about accusations of socialism at that rate. If you'd picked $3.8m you still wouldn't have had to worry about that.
[I didn't pick it out of the air--I got it from the Piketty book I mentioned and linked. I agree no one needs that much, but considering there are citizens now with wealth in multiple tens of billions, it's still a pretty extreme reform. --Mike]
Posted by: Andrew Sheppard | Monday, 27 September 2021 at 03:05 AM