Open Mike: One for All and All for One

Sign on front door: "Until further notice, this residence is closed to visitors. We're not sick, and we don't think you are. We're just not sure we trust you around our toilet paper."

(A joke making the rounds lately)

We're in the middle of what I hope will be remembered as a "scare." When such things concern financial behavior they might be called "panics."

And all the toilet paper is gone.

The toilet paper shelves at the grocery store in Penn Yan

This seems very strange at first glance, because what does a vaguely flu-like virus that only rarely causes diarrhea have to do with going to the bathroom?

It's logical, though, because we're being asked to potentially "self-quarantine"—isolate ourselves at home—if we get the illness known as COVID-19. Of course there's no way to know if we have the virus, because we can't get tested. On Friday, an ER nurse I know described the entire protocol for being tested at the local hospital where she works, and it's very involved. The bottom line is, where I live, unless you're really sick, you're not going to know whether you have the coronavirus or not. Basically, to know you have it, you'd have to be on a ventilator in the Emergency Room.

And while we're on that subject, special blessings for our health workers—like Erica, my friend the nurse. They're on the front lines and in harm's way, and deserve the same gratitude we grant those who serve in the military.

But back to the point. Prospectively—hypothetically—we're facing the prospect of voluntarily isolating ourselves at home for two weeks. So do you have two weeks' worth of supplies at home?

I don't. I shop for food almost every day. So it makes sense that you'd head to the grocery store and stock up on things you might need. Dog food, for example.

...And toilet paper. Be prepared!

Then, the behavior stimulates the behavior. Because if everyone's buying up toilet paper in a panic and you know it's getting scarce, well, you'd better get some yourself, because, you know, it's one of those household staples you normally need. So then more people buy some. But the stores are used to stocking only enough for ordinary everyday buying habits, and the sudden surge in demand makes the pipeline run dry.

So it's almost like you're forced to participate in this behavior even if you're not worried about getting the virus and have decided not to prep for self-quarantine. Even if you don't want to be another lemming.

I didn't have to face this. I have enough TP.

You never know about fires
So are we all being stupid? The B&H Superstore has closed down. The Sheriff of my county has declared a state of emergency and the bars and restaurants are closed. They're not playing NBA games. You know the litany.

What are they doing? Why is this happening?

Long ago I lived in Georgetown, DC, in a third-floor walk-up apartment. The street life was, shall we say, eventful. One night in the wee hours I was woken up by multiple sirens, so naturally I looked out my window. Across the street, also on the third floor, I could see a window that was lit up by flames from within.

Many firefighting vehicles descended on the scene and screeched to a halt between our buildings. Firefighters leapt out and energetically set to work. The street was quickly closed off. Residents of the apartment building filed out onto the street in their nightclothes. Hoses were connected to hydrants. A ladder truck arrived and a fireman scrambled up a ladder and broke the window where the fire was with an axe. Almost as soon as they arrived, there were firemen scurrying about on the roof.

Soon the excitement seemed to die down, but the noise didn't, so getting back to sleep seemed to be out. So I wandered down to the street and stuck my nose in it. (I am a nosey fellow, I will admit it.) I spoke to a fireman who seemed to be just standing around. I asked him how bad the fire was. He said, "Oh, it was nothing. We got it out in no time." It was a mattress fire—a woman had fallen asleep smoking and set her mattress aflame. She got out all right, but the fire scorched the whole inside of her apartment, and there was some water damage in the apartment below.

I expressed ignorant surprise that they threw so many resources at such a small fire. "You guys were on the roof!"

So he schooled me. He explained that they move as fast as possible and treat every fire as if it's highly dangerous because it's so important to get in and get it put out before it runs away from them. "Any fire can get out of control," he said, "and you never know how fast it's going to move. So we move as fast as we can, every single time."

Seem like a good analogy?

Exponential
A friend who works in medical policy emailed to say, among other things, "people don't understand the implications of exponential growth."

If they don't, it was nicely explained by Megan McArdle recently in a column in The Washington Post called "When a danger is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn't." She began:

"There's an old brain teaser that goes like this: You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lilypad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on.

Now the teaser. 'If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?'

"The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you’ll barely know the lily pads are there."

It's the old trick question: I'll give you either one million dollars in cash, or one single red cent doubled every day for a month. Quick, which one do you want? You'd better have picked the penny.

The high potential for exponential growth is the reason some people are deeply worried about the spread of the virus and other people think it's much ado about nothing.

'Epidemiology' is the study of disease transmission
It may seem hysterical that so many things are closing, but our epidemiologists know what they are doing. They have switched strategies now. They're moving away from quarantining. What they're trying to do now is flatten the curve, and the method they're using to do it is called social distancing. Social distancing is where each citizen voluntarily limits his or her contact with other people and, especially, with large groups.

But let's back up to "flattening the curve" and what that means. Let's say 150 people in the area of Smallsville Hospital will have heart attacks in a given year's time. But they're distributed randomly—that is, more or less evenly—throughout the year. That means an average of less than one heart attack admission every two days. Since Smallsville Hospital has the capacity to handle ten heart attack admissions on one day, they can easily handle the load, continuously. Some people do die, but all receive appropriate care. That's a flat curve.

Now imagine all 150 heart attack patients arrive on the same day.

That's a steep curve.

If that happens, most of the patients will die—there aren't enough ambulances, there aren't enough EMTs, there aren't enough ER berths, there aren't enough doctors, etc., etc. The system is overwhelmed and many individuals won't be cared for, but will be ignored and left neglected and suffering.

The United States is blessed to have a high number of ER beds, and many hospitals have a good supply of respirators. But for any given number of people who will get COVID-19, the more we can spread those cases out over time, the fewer of us will die. So every effort to flatten the curve will help the medical system save more of us...instead of dying, many of us will have a respiratory illness, get better, and go on with our lives.

So how does social distancing help? There's a great, short, simple interactive graphic article at The Washington Post that makes the concept clear and shows you how it works. It's by Harry Stevens and it's called "Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to 'flatten the curve.'" It simulates an imaginary disease and shows you graphically how it spreads. Suits us photographers, who like to see things and are so comfortable with the visual. The WaPo, which is now owned by Jeff Bezos of Amazon, is normally behind a paywall, but it's making the essential parts of its coronavirus coverage free for all visitors as a public service. So you should be able to see it.

If the article doesn't work on your tablet or phone (it didn't work on my phone), be sure to look it up from your computer.

It's worth it. Even if you already understand.

Given the importance of the idea and the inherent difficulty of the concept, it's one of the best examples we've seen yet of interactive graphic news articles, in my humble opinion—the kind of thing that can be presented on the Internet but not on the printed page.

You're going to bring Alexandre Dumas in to this?
It makes it clear why closing the NBA and the bars helps. Officials can't enforce "sheltering in place," but they can eliminate the attractions that get people out and intermingling. You don't have to decide not to attend a crowded restaurant if the restaurant isn't open. You don't have to deny yourself the pleasure of churning in amongst thousands of other souls at an NBA game if there's no game being played out on the floor.

Every individual who "shelters in place" and stays at home as much as they can is helping flatten the curve.

That is, they are sacrificing their own convenience and entertainment for the good of all of us—for the good of society.

This is an important concept right now. The twelve-step program I participate in issued an official statement about the pandemic, which makes good sense because our primary activity is gathering for regular meetings which anyone can attend, and which conventionally end with everyone holding hands! But they declined to make any recommendations. I was disappointed by this. Leadership in a crisis never hurts, even when it consists of sympathetic suggestions.

They said something that I think highlights one of the greatest weaknesses of the United States as a nation of people. It's also been one of our greatest strengths—but right now it's a weakness. They sternly conclude one paragraph by deferring to the cult of individuality and self-will: "Regardless of group decisions, each individual is responsible for their own health."

It would be pretty to think so (to allude to Hemingway). But...no. Not now. We're all in this one together whether we like it or not. (I won't go into the fact that the present crisis highlights why society needs to provide basic medical care to all of its members, not just some of them. In a pandemic—and this is not going to be the last of them—taking care of only the rich just doesn't work.)

The fact is, by protecting yourself, you are protecting others; and by protecting others, you are protecting yourself. "Un pour tous, tous pour un (One for all, and all for one; also inverted to All for one, and one for all) is a motto traditionally associated with the titular heroes of the novel The Three Musketeers written by Alexandre Dumas père, first published in 1844. In the novel, it was the motto of a group of French musketeers named Athos, Porthos, Aramis and d'Artagnan who stayed loyal to each other through thick and thin." (Wikipedia.)

Individualism, self-interest, and self-reliance might be admirable traits in some circumstances. But they are not what is needed in the present moment. It is time for cooperation, not competition. In this crisis, the more we can be mindful of what is best for others, the better off we will be.

Honey, can you bring me some toilet paper? We're out!
And finally, if you're staying home and have time on your hands—and to end this where we began—here's a link to an odd and awkward subject that offends modesty somewhat—the history of toilet paper. And why we no longer use the Sears catalog. As Popeye says, faskinatin'.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the TP should be back on the store shelves in a week or two. Ninety percent of the toilet paper used in the United States is made here, and most of the rest comes from Canada or Mexico. TOP will be open for business during the contagion, assuming the portal continues to function.

Stay safe, friends, and God bless you and yours. 

Mike
(Thanks to Dan W., Oren, and Erica)

P.S. Oh, and here's something funny. The grocery stores in the area are half cleaned out, but I eat mostly vegetarian—and the produce sections are still all but full. Sure, the bananas and potatoes (most popular fruit and vegetable, respectively) are gone, but for the most part that section of the store looks like any other day. The rest of the store might be depleted. But even fear-driven panic buying can't get people to eat their vegetables like their mothers told them to! It's like, yeah, sure, we're desperate, but we're not that desperate.  :-D

Original contents copyright 2020 by Michael C. Johnston and/or the bylined author. All Rights Reserved. Links in this post may be to our affiliates; sales through affiliate links may benefit this site.

Please help support The Online Photographer through Patreon

(To see all the comments, click on the "Comments" link below.)
Featured Comments from:

Glenn Allenspach: "A couple days ago, we my wife and I were discussing the TP shortage. As she held up a 12-pack of the stuff, double rolls mind you, I snapped a pic. She immediately said, 'Don’t post that, we don't want to attract any burglars!'"

John Krumm: "Great post. Both my brother and my wife are physicians. My brother is at a clinic in Seattle, where he said they are going day by day, wondering what fresh hell will arrive. Patient visits are down, but confusion, anxiety and dread is up. One visiting doctor just quit to go back to her home country, and they are down to three proper masks. Yesterday they set up an outside tent for testing and the wind blew it over. The cost of the test they have is around $1,000.

"Here in Duluth we have yet to see a single confirmed case, so we have more time to prepare, and are taking all the steps. I volunteer with a couple of groups, one working on housing issues. Helping the homeless is a serious problem. Having 100 people sleeping in close quarters was never the best solution, but now it's a recipe for disaster. We probably should rent out a couple hotels for that purpose, and will be pushing officials to offer that.

"To me what is really striking is the slowing of time, like you always hear about during accidents. Everything is in flux, so two weeks ago feels like an eternity.

"I have my fingers crossed that the best thing coming out of this is that we fundamentally change our national priorities."

Kristine Hinrichs: "Interesting. Here in Milwaukee we’ve been on increasing lockdown since last Thursday or Friday. As of 5 p.m. today everything is closed except grocery stores, pharmacies, and other essential stuff. Bars are closed (and it’s St. Patrick’s Day) and restaurants can only have take-out. You can’t gather in groups of ten or more. The one thing that you can do is go outside. The parks are packed with people walking, all maintaining their six foot social distance. It looks like a physical fitness epidemic. Yes, TP and hand sanitizer are in short supply. The good thing is that some grocery stores have special hours only for people 60+ like me or at another kind of risk."

Hélcio J. Tagliolatto: "Excellent post, Mike! Same situation is occurring in Brasil. I read this on a website in Portugal yesterday: 'Your grandparents were asked to go to war; you are only asked to stay on the couch. For God sake!'"

schralp: "Here is another way to think of the situation:

Comments

[Stan B.]

A spike in epidemics and pandemics are but one of the consequences predicted by climate change, along with increased: droughts, famines, fires, storm ferocity and global wars/conflicts due to decrease of land mass caused by sea rise...

This virus which has set the whole world afire is but a wee peek of much grander things to come in... Future World! Imagine when all the above is happening concurrently- fun times ahead!

[Tex Andrews]

And the whole toilet paper thing is why we should all buy Japanese-style toilets, like these that can be retro-fitted and are available through Mike's link to Amazon! Once you've used one, you'll never want to go back. Much greener, too. Here's the least expensive one:

https://amzn.to/2IWa2iu

[Ian Seward]

Covid-19 is generally not serious for people under 60-70 except if you have other problems like:

People at higher risk include those who are over 70, regardless of whether they have a medical condition or not, and people under 70 with any of the following underlying health conditions:

chronic (long-term) respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitis
chronic heart disease, such as heart failure
chronic kidney disease
chronic liver disease, such as hepatitis
chronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson's disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsy
diabetes
problems with your spleen - for example, sickle cell disease or if you have had your spleen removed
a weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets or chemotherapy
being seriously overweight (a BMI of 40 or above)
those who are pregnant

Covid-19 is a virus so there is no treatment, the body has to cure you. It attacks the lungs and gives you viral pneumonia. The only care currently is to be put on an ICU ventilator for days / weeks. How many spare ventilators does your local Hospital have?

In Italy they are already Triaging patients too old, too ill sorry.

That's why the young and fit people need to do their part and endure the incredible hardship of self isolating for a few weeks. Everyone who doesn't will have the deaths of hundreds of people on their conscience. They need to step up and save lives.

[Charles Lanteigne]

Flatten the curve. Yeah, about that...

It'll get [much] worse before it gets better, as they say.

[Bill Tyler]

Exponential growth is what to expect in the early to mid stages. But over time, expect the growth to look more like the logistic curve. This starts out exponential, and then flattens. The key idea is that the more people become infected, the fewer remain to be infected. You can't infect more than the entire population, so that eventually the growth in infections slows. The logistic curve is explained in many places. Here's one: https://xaktly.com/LogisticFunctions.html None of this should mitigate the preventive measures we're taking now. We're in the exponential part of the curve, and need to slow the growth as much as possible.

[Roger Lambert]

Technically, Covid has been documented in a Chinese study to have a fecal transmission route, and to be associated with diarrhea in about 4% of patients. So, having lots of TP on hand may not be a bad idea.

And Covid really is not very flu-like, if we use the word "flu" as it is supposed to be intended - a short-hand for influenza.

Influenza hits you like a hammer. In 90 seconds you go from feeling perfectly fine to knowing you are really really sick. Covid, unfortunately, comes on slowly, so many people still feel fine being out and about.

And, of course, Covid has way more morbidity and mortality than influenza.

[k4kafka]

Sheltering in-place,and keeping busy digitizing and retouching vintage transparencies...some Kodachromes still in excellent condition from as far back as 1970. The Ektachromes need more PhotoShop "love"to clear away the magenta...

[Dave Levingston]

This is an excellent post. Some of the most clear and understandable writing about this that I’ve seen. Thank you.

And, I’m not worried about running out of TP. I have socks and I have a washing machine. ;-)

[Thanks. It took me a LONG time to write. I kept reading more, things kept changing, and I kept getting more input. --Mike]

[Peter Conway]

Best explanation I’ve seen for the run on toilet paper was a comment over on Kirk Tuck’s blog (paraphrasing): 1 person sneezes and 100 poop their pants. :)

[MikeR]

Yikes! No TP at Tops market for TOP.

[Chuck Albertson]

In Seattle, the wave of lunacy buying seems to have crested, and my neighborhood drugstore has a mountain of Charmin in 8-roll packs priced to clear.

On the other hand, gun sales have spiked nationwide, so maybe people are planning to use all those loo rolls as sandbags for their bunkers.

[glenn Brown]

This is not a "Scare" Michael, or a Dem Hoax as your president has said, people are dying.My son is working 15 hours a day helping people deal with the Virus. We are all hoping for the best, I am on day 6 of "social distancing" and ALL my clients have postponed photo shoots for 30 days. We all need to act now.

[Dierk]

Who needs TP? We're photographers: get some fine art printing paper, ink and print! Isolation may help to sharpen our visual senses... Hopefully this could lead to another TOP print sale...

[Larry Mart]

With regards to social distancing, why is it that every news conference I see on TV, from the local mayor, the state governor or the white house has the speaker standing in front of a tightly packed human background?

[Ed O]

'the silence was deafening' After missing my daily fix of TOP for the past few days, the wait was well worth it. Well done Mike, and the WP piece is brilliant in summarizing responses to this pandemic and our responsibility to one another.

[David Dyer-Bennet]

Yeah, we doubled the TP on hand since we might not shop for several weeks. But that's nothing like the stockpiling some people seem to be doing. We probably have over a month in stock now, a great plenty.

Some people, of course, seem to be hoarding with the intention of price gouging. I hope that we-the-people and also we-the-government do not treat them gently.

It appalls me how many people are completely ignorant of exponential growth curves. I guess as a mathematician, computer scientist, and science fiction fan I've been exposed to them from all directions, whereas not everybody would have been. But it was in middle-school math classes, too; maybe I paid attention rather than ignoring it as much as possible.

[Tom]

In the U.K. The over 70s begin a 12 week isolation period this weekend. Most photographers will struggle until normal business resumes, I cancelled the last booking in my diary today as businesses close their door to outsiders.

[Patrick]

Good writeup except where you slipped and said only the rich have health care.

[Kenneth Tanaka]

This morning I transmitted the final image to Tate (museum) Publishing for a catalog for a June exhibition that will almost certainly be postponed. As the project staff at the museum received it they were also preparing to close the museum today until at least May 1. It was a rather solemn moment.

-----

Now your assignment: Grab one of your cameras (olde film or digital...or your iPhone) and spend a day trying to capture this strange moment in, say, 36 images.

(Without putting yourself at undue risk, that is.)

[hugh crawford]

Well a virus that mostly kills us boomers was not quite the way I was expecting the expected social security shortfall to resolve itself.

[Thomas Rink]

Mike, you probably missed out on "Top 100 healthy & delicious toilet paper dishes"! Anyway, anything goes with a sufficient amount of ketchup.

Stay healthy!
Thomas

[Kev]

Superb Mike, thank you.

Above all else, I am focussing on the knowledge that this all will pass. The media hysteria will pass, the virus will become a background noise just like other diseases we live with as a global population. The lockdowns, isolation and uncertainty will pass too.

If I was to be massively optimistic, I think we may come out the other side of this slightly smarter as societies and governments.

[brian]

The paper linked below seems to have been instrumental in moving the administration beyond happy talk to actual efforts to mitigate transmission, but the appendix shows that unless we sustain efforts to promote social isolation (until we are able to begin to distribute many tens of millions of doses of a yet-to-be tested vaccine) we will simply delay the peak of the epidemic until some months after we tire of such efforts.

According to the authors, "intensive intervention [social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members ]. . . will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed." (Emphasis mine.)

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR14FfG8zV17eoJ3aFl8JNe-IvjZEcmP3g_iMYgrAs2xb3TV-SOs7CEvLOs

[Paul]

Dear Mike
Congratulations, very well written. Thank you.

To you and to all TOP readers take care, keep healthy and safe.

Paul

[Roger]

Bidet all they way. Only need a bit of TP to burnish your bum. That initial blast of water is...invigorating.

[Gordon Lewis]

"The B&H Superstore has closed down."

FWIW, only the retail walk-in store is closed. B&H is still taking online, phone, or store pick-up orders.

[Curt Gerston]

I agree with Dave, one of the best articles I’ve read (and I’ve read a lot the last couple of weeks, being in Seattle) that shows what a good writer can do: pull together disparate and interesting facts and sources, and present a compelling case. Yay Mike!
Curt (staying home for the next six weeks+ with the family)

[Richard Tugwell]

The unintended consequences of bog-roll (AKA Toilet Paper) shortages.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/uks-sewage-system-in-danger-of-gridlock-from-toilet-paper-substitutes-coronavirus

[Nico]

Recommended reading: La Peste.

[Speed]

Exponential ...

"The photography term "one f-stop" refers to a factor of √2 (approx. 1.41) change in f-number, which in turn corresponds to a factor of 2 change in light intensity."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aperture

And for shutter speed ...

"With this scale, each increment roughly doubles the amount of light (longer time) or halves it (shorter time)."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutter_speed

As to caring for lots and lots of sick people ... listening to or watching or reading the popular press is for some scary and for others depressing and for still others maddening. How can we be so incompetent and unprepared?

Watching local (state level) officials is more reassuring than watching the "news." The head of the state hospital association stood beside the governor and gave us the number of hospitals at various levels of capabilities; number of beds occupied and available; staff availability as well as confirmed cases etc. In addition, hospitals are making or have made arrangements to open recently closed hospital rooms as well as rooms and whole wings in nursing homes. And if we need more they have hotel and motel rooms available.

Kirkland, Washington was out in front when they made the announcement, almost coincident with the first cases, that they had bought a motel. It sounded silly at the time but clearly they had a plan and were implementing it tout de suite.

[Roger Bradbury]

An excellent post, Mike. Thank you.

[Dan Khong]

Once you get into and used to the act of washing up with a small spray nozzle - easily installed as a bathroom accessory - toilet paper is no longer such an issue and becomes a thing of the past.

I use the same spray for my darkroom work too!

[Randy Cole]

These situations can reveal what is really important. From an Italian friend: "In Australia toilet paper is over, here the first days vanish pasta".

Maybe the Italians have the right priorities...

Randy

[Yoram Nevo]

In Israel the government is using the corona crisis as a reason to prevent parliament and the courts from doing their lawful job. The prime minister corruption trial had been postponed to unknown date by the law minister who assumed expanded authorities to himself. The head of parliament from the rulling party is preventing his own replacement by refusing to convene the general assembly.
Your USA elections are soon - BE PREPARED

[scott kirkpatrick]

Israel is going full Singapore and, so far hanging together. We returned from the US last week and were immediately sent home for 14 day quarantine because we came from the US. That requirement quickly became "from anywhere else." A day later we announced that schools and universities would all go to online teaching, no gathering with more than 100 people. Theaters closed last week, refunding all unused tickets. Then no gatherings with more than 10, And finally the gates to the university are now closed, with only a few essential service exceptions allowed, and we have moved to "shelter in place."

BUT -- our health services have adapted. We registered at the airport as quarantinees. Have received a phone call from our service every day or two. When we reported that two of us have a slight cough, a fully suited technician appeared at our door, essentially performing the drive thru test that you see on youtube. If we pass, I'm not sure that we will know, and I don't know if the lab work is actually in place for all the swabs that they are taking.

So far no deaths reported, with a bit over 300 positive test results. We are just starting to get enough coverage and systematic data to see if we are falling below a simple exponential curve, thereby stretching out the response. The plot I want to see is the absolute number of cases detected scaled logarithmically, versus days since measurements were started. When that curves up, we are not in control. When that curve starts to curve down, it shows progress. When it peaks, as it has in China, then the wave has passed through and it is time to figure out what happened and start to get ready for the next one.

[wts]

Virus, shmirus. The tragic news in New England today: Tom Brady is moving on! Fortunately, because of the situation you explain so well (thanks for putting in the time), no one is rioting in the empty streets of Boston.

[hugh crawford]

RE: B & H photo taking orders for in-store pick up.

An idea I’ve been telling everybody who will listen is that all stores should be taking remote orders for pick up. The everybody stay home model is going to paint society into a corner where society and the economy will really be difficult to restart from a dead stop.

I was just reading that bus systems across the country are suspending operations because the businesses that bus drivers have used for restrooms have closed.

[John Robison]

Since this is a national “emergency”, then issue ration books, like during WW2. This would make hoarding a lot more difficult.

[Pritam Singh]

By far the most lucid piece on the subject I have read.
Take a bow, Sir!
Thank you and God bless you.

[Roberto Carlin]

I was going to ask you to figure by how much to flatten the curve, maybe with the help of the chief scientists Ctein, but I've seen it done the article linked by Charles Lanteigne in a previous comment. One of the best I have seen, that shows how most of these "flatten the curve" graphs are misleading. Well, good luck, we in Italy need lot of it too.

[Tim Bradshaw]

As a reward for inventing chess, the king asked Sessa to choose his reward. Sessa said 'I would like a grain of rice on the first square of this chessboard, two on the second, four on the third ...': this seemed a meagre reward to the king. I am not sure whether enough grains of rice have yet existed to pay the reward: perhaps they have.

That's what exponentials do.

[Rikkii]

@ Bill Tyler your analysis is correct but for one point. You are assuming a person can’t recover and then catch the disease and get sick again. According to Chris Whitty, the UKs chief Science Advisor leading the UK government’s strategy on Covid-19, it’s not yet clear whether one having recovered from the disease gets permanent immunity to the virus, short term immunity or no immunity at all. There are reports of repeat illnesses but questions about that data. Corona viruses such as the common cold don’t seem to leave their victims with long term immunity.
One bit of good news is a drug called Cloroquine and a similar drug hydroxychloroquine used commonly for years are showing signs of being effective against Covid-19, not a panacea but it reduces severity and shortens recovery and is well tolerated. . https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub
I hope the link doesn’t break when I post.

[Rob de Loe]

I had to take my dog down to the basement to show her that we had a spare bag of food -- twice!

Stay healthy Mike. Great post.

[David]

My introduction to exponential growth was via David Suzuki, and this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x98KFcMJeo
Years later, it's still relevant, in another way.

[Dave Sailer]

I don't feel so good.
https://pbfcomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PBF-The_Report.png

Fear is the mind killer.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESUMluDWsAUQ6E1?format=jpg

Soon.
https://66.media.tumblr.com/d6af4982eec950de7f82fefd28bf58c3/84a77ee05684801b-59/s500x750/570cdbc16e80aab1dae38bbacdd641a0d51889af.jpg

But dont give up hope, or your mask, just yet, because love, even in the time of plague.
https://cdn.dribbble.com/users/2893989/screenshots/10639087/media/ba6127e8f3997d90b65407648a7097bc.jpg

And, if you need something to do while waiting to die, check these out.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES148-PWsAgmYgb?format=jpg

Mr Money Mustache has a really good essay too.

P.S. I use paper towels. Hands down best. (Am currently locked inside my apartment in Ecuador. With paper towels, plus water, plus soap, because I always wash up, regardless. Actually less crazy here too.)

[Nick]

So there’s a TP shortage, but at least there won’t be a TOP shortage!

[Mark Layne]

As a toilet paper sales agent in an earlier life one of the obstacles to improving sales was that many of the older houses had a Bidet in the bathroom.

[AlexV]

A very informative post. Thank you.

[Jim Arthur]

Well done and ditto on the special blessings for our health care workers. They deserve our respect. I appreciate all the time and effort you put into this post. I’m not sure where we would be without the Internet at times like this. It’s comforting to be able to tap a few keys and find reasoned words such as yours, investigative journalism, CDC updates, or an extended YouTube interview with an expert in infectious disease epidemiology.

[toto]

These days, I see a lot of videos of people washing their hands for approximately 20 seconds while singing Happy Birthday or some other song. Unfortunately, they also leave the water running full blast all that time! Now you may say, it's no big deal. But do that five times a day, multiplied by 7.5 billion people, over a three-month period. Imagine how much water goes down the drain. This puts an enormous pressure on water supply and quality. Water might just become the next crisis. And you won't have any water to flush down that toilet paper you've hoarded.

[Nigel Voak]

Well, here in Italy, by law our houses have to have a Bidet, so there has been no rush on toilet paper as we know there is a messy but hygienic alternative to this taboo subject.

More seriously we cannot find face masks and anti-bacterial gel.

I am surprised that with all the talk we have heard over the years about the risk of a biological terrorist attack, our governments have not set aside a strategic reserve of things like face masks in some bunker for just this sort of occurrence. It seems the world health organisation were well aware of these sorts of risks.

Here in Italy the current “hot spot” we are coping at the limit. A trip to the newsagent or the bakers is a good excuse (and only legal way) to get out of the house for a breath of fresh air.

I have posted a few pictures on my Blog of these strange times:

https://nigelvoak.blogspot.com/2020/03/scenes-from-nightmare.html

[Peter Croft]

It's just the same in the antipodes, Mike, except that citizens returning from overseas are required to self-isolate for 14 days on pain of hefty fines and even imprisonment! Bali is our go-to holiday place and even though the virus is known to be there, people are still getting in the Airbuses to go there. Yet the government are saying, come home now before we close the borders. They soon may not be able to get home. Virgin Australia are stopping all international flights. And as returning overseas travellers, they are mandated to self isolate for 14 days. So much for their relaxing holiday. You can't tell some people.

But as for TP and other supplies, self-isolation is not just for 14 days. I'm 73 and have three danger issues, so I have to think of isolation for the foreseeable future. I can't just go out after two weeks as if it's all fine.

Luckily I'm used to this and I have a mass of unread books, unwatched DVDs, unprinted images, unwritten memoirs, unmade slide shows, uncomposed photobooks, unfinished model railway plans, unattempted car repairs, unwatched Netflix series and so on and on. What, me bored?

[Paulo Bizarro]

Governments in Europe are running around like headless chickens, implementing measures too late. 1 day lost means an increase rate of 40% in infected cases.

[Dr Tom Bell]

Lilies in a pond and Grains of Wheat or Sand on a Chess Board .....

1 grain on the first ... 2 on the second ... 4 on the third etc .... then up to 64 squares the number of grains is :

18,446,744,073,709,551,615 grains?

First attributed to Ibn Khallikan .... the Arabs having saved the Greek Philosophers for us ... and of course having more sand!

[Dr Tom Bell]

I should have added ... aka your lily example ... KURZWELL showed that although there many grains in the first half of the Chess Board the second half had has more the 2 Billion times as many!

The entire chessboard would have 1,199,000,000,000 metric tonnes of Wheat on it 1500 times the Global production

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem

[Frank]

Same same here in Europe. Toilet paper seems to be a miracle cure for this bloody virus!

And moreover, people over here don't seem to grasp the exponential thing either.

But smiles aside, the situation here in Europe gets dramatic for medical personnel.

Take care on your side of the pond and keep the distance!

[William Schneider]

I find it curious that I can get a better grasp of the situation from enthusiast bloggers than from many news outlets.

For example, here's a well-written audio blog with a level-headed story about the current situation...

http://archimago.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-few-thoughts-finding.html

[Giovanni Maggiora]

Your best and more significant post in the history of TOP, Mike. Too bad that it's not about photography, but then again we are being reminded by Real Life that photography perhaps is a pleasant luxury...
By the way, talking about illuminating papers about epidemics, this one is long and less visually appealing than the WP's but it's absolutely compelling. Like with your smart firemen: every day counts!
Thanks for putting this out, I'll share it with my photographer and non-photographer friends alike.
Stay home, stay safe.

[Giovanni Maggiora]

The link!
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[anthony reczek]

Great post, Mike. If I was to have access to only one website/blog while stranded on a desert island, it would be TOP. But uh, let's hope it doesn't come to that...

[Dennis]

I found some optimism in the observation that, in a couple stores, toilet paper is all sold out, but tissues are in stock. So people are apparently planning to stay home and NOT be sick.

[John ironside]

Thank you, Mike, great writing. I very much agree.
Concerning Ian Seward's comment above, I gather there are some safety-tested drugs that look as if they may help reduce the duration, the severity and onward transmission of the illness.
I certainly hope so, as I'm 75 years old, hunkered down at home in England and praying for an effective vaccine to be widely available within 18 months.

[Paul in AZ]

Good article.
I will comment on the apparent lack of leadership from AA. The 4th tradition says each group is to be autonomous except in matters affecting AA as a whole. It could be debated if some sort of suggestion would benefit AA as a whole or if each group should make it's own rules. I guess they chose autonomy.

[Malcolm Myers]

Send it to the Guardian. It's a very good article!

[Andre Moreau]

Seems the US, for reaons of its own, did not want to use the WHO's Covid-19 test in favor of an american made test.

A new 15 minutes Covid-19 test will be available from Japan.

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2020031201437/kurabo-to-sell-15-minute-coronavirus-test-kit.html

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/13/national/kurabo-coronavirus-test-kits/

[robert e]

Thanks for the calm and rational--and even humorous--explainer, Mike.

I'm puzzled, though, by your suggestion that we have plenty of ER beds. As far as I know, our ER capacity was stressed even before this outbreak, which has already overwhelmed ERs in Washington and New York City. If you have reason to think otherwise, I'd love to see the info, as I'm currently doing research on our healthcare system.

[Robert Birnbaum]

Mike, you are very right! I live in Berlin, Germany, as a journalist normally dealing with politics. But we're some days or maybe weeks ahead of you in the pandemic event, and nothing is normal any more.

I work at home now, as do our ministers of finance and home security which may have had contact to someone infected. We're close to a complete shutdown of public life and economy - and believe me, we Germans don't shut down our beloved car factories (VW, BMW and so on) for fun!

We closed every school, every shop except food stores and others necessary for everyday live. Everybody is urged to keep as much social distance as possible even to relatives - and at least two meters distance to everybody except the folks in your own household. Sounds like a bad blockbuster scenario, but it's real.

Our young people have some difficulties to understand why they should obey to these measures although youngsters seldom get really sick by Sars-CoVir-19. They don't understand the dynamics of exponential spreading. Statistics is not much cared for in the school schedules.

But if you understand that the problem isn't whether you yourself are in danger or not, but a problem of a collective thread - and Mike, you pointed to some of the best sources worldwide to understand that, especially the WashPost piece -, you happily stay at home.

We have a very good medical system and a mandatory insurance which guarantees free medical treatment. We have 28.000 beds for intensive care which sums up to 34 beds per 100.000 inhabitants - same quota as in the U.S. But our military starts to erect provisional hospitals. Even our system would crash soon if we couldn't slow down the spreading of the virus significantly.

We currently have a ratio of around 1:2 to 1:3 - every infected person infests two to three others, which means the numbers double every two days - numbers of infected people, sick people, dead people. We need at least 1:1, better lower. It may take some weeks to reach this. If social isolation works as expected, it will even take some month for our lives to return to some normality.

And, by the way: toilet paper was the first thing that ran out in Germany, too - only followed by masks (useless against viruses) and desinfection fluids (unnecessary if you use soap properly). Psychiatrists should find out what's gone wrong with parts of our population in their early lives ...

Side effect: Berlin pictures nowadays remind me to the early days of Daguerrotypes - no people around, not even as long exposure shadows, only Brandenburg Gate ...

Keep strong over there!

Robert

[charlyR]

In Italy and France red wine and condoms got rare,
in US and Germany toilet paper - what's going wrong there?
;-)

[Daniel]

All those long lines at the Gun stores. Buying rifle, pistols, shotguns and ammo so they can shoot those who break in to steal their Toilet Paper?

[Christer]

TP. I loved TP. Tech Pan. From Kodak. Almost no grain at all. A bit difficult to develop if you wanted a full tonal scale. But sharp. TP.

[Sid]

Mike,

Your essay is thoughtful, wise, and well written.

[Robert]

A ballad from down under. https://youtu.be/ia0bfWbOLjY