New Nikon Mirrorless System Will be Medium Format! No It Won't!

"That's the charge of the Light Brigade at Balaclava!"
"No it's not, it's Waterloo!"*

Mirrorless just passed its 10th anniversary. It has been a success, yet has failed to take the market by storm.

As you're no doubt aware if you're interested in digital cameras and/or Nikon, Nikon and Canon have been significant holdouts (although both have dabbled, halfheartedly), but Nikon has decided recently to get into mirrorless in a bigger, more Nikony way. It has been teasing its future announcement of a system anticipated for August 23rd.

I guess I'm kind of an "old bull" in the terms of an old dirty joke which I will not repeat, in that I'm not very interested any more in the fierce speculation which precedes upcoming new products. Having seen all the bull before, I'm generally content to simply...wait. I know that's dull, and no fun, and I know some people love that sort of speculation. The thing that killed it for me was the "ND forum" on Miata.net, where Mazda Miata (MX-5) fans argued ferociously with each other for an entire year before the arrival of the fourth iteration of the Miata finally arrived in 2016. Of course, when it did arrive, nobody bothered to go back and sort out who had been right and who had been wrong...all the speculation promptly evaporated, leaving naught but a wisp of smoke hanging in the air. Which was soon obliterated by the evening breeze.

It reminds me of a sort of argument I used to get into fairly regularly before the Internet, when participants would come around to arguing matters of fact. This always used to frustrate me. One person would claim Derek Bok was President of Harvard through the decade of the '80s (say), and the other would say no, it was the '90s, or one person would claim the Boer Wars were fought in South Africa and other would say no, that was fought by the Black Sea, and they'd argue about it, back and forth, back and forth...and I'd be sitting there thinking, we could look this up! But without any resources handy it was difficult to look things up and settle such issues rationally. 

This ended, pretty much, with Google. Now when people are tempted to argue matters of fact, it's a trivial matter to simply Google it on your phone and put the matter more or less to rest (Derek Bok was President of Harvard from 1971 to 1991 and later served as acting President for a year during a search, and the Boer Wars were fought in South Africa—the other person was confusing it with the Crimean War. Incidentally, warning: do not attempt to understand the Crimean War. It is much more complicated than it is interesting. The only things good that came out of were Alfred Lord Tennyson's poem "The Charge of the Light Brigade" and Florence Nightingale, and the cardigan, and the balaclava).

As regards my post title, I have no idea if the new Nikon mirrorless will be medium format or not. I just stuck it up there as an ironic commentary on the sort of  breathy speculation that this kind of game engenders. Hope you aren't irritated.

My actual prediction of the advent of whatever it is we're waiting for is: we'll know in a few days. Until then, chill out, chilluns.

Mike

*Lady Butler's famous painting "Scotland Forever!", although often pressed into service to represent the charge of Lord Cardigan's Light Brigade, actually represents a scene at the Battle of Waterloo.

Original contents copyright 2018 by Michael C. Johnston and/or the bylined author. All Rights Reserved. Links in this post may be to our affiliates; sales through affiliate links may benefit this site.

B&H Photo • Amazon US • Amazon UK
Amazon Germany • Amazon Canada • Adorama

(To see all the comments, click on the "Comments" link below.)
Featured Comments from:

Terry Letton: "One other thing from the Crimean War, photographer Roger Fenton."

John Camp: "If you go Nikon Rumors, you will find a digital clock at the top of the home page counting down the days, hours, minutes and seconds to the announcement. Underneath the clock are photos and descriptions of the cameras, which sort of makes the clock pointless...IMHO. And LOL. Not to mention WTF."

Tom Passin: "Some one I once worked for called it 'arguing about timetables.' You can argue all you want, and maybe even 'win' the argument, but the train will come down the tracks on its schedule no matter how the argument went."

Speed: "My favorite memory of family dinners involved a conversation about buttermilk. We all knew that buttermilk was some sort of cultured milk product that you bought in the grocery store. The elder stateswoman at the table (my great aunt Signe) insisted that buttermilk was/is the liquid left over after making butter. Each side worked hard to convince the other until someone left the table to get a dictionary. Unsatisfied with Webster's opinion, someone else got out the encyclopedia. Then someone dug out another encyclopedia. (It is a commentary on the type of house I grew up in that we owned more than one encyclopedia). Turns out, both were right. Older generations with experience in making butter from whole milk had one right answer. Younger folks who bought their cultured buttermilk at the grocery store had the other. Every time someone at the dinner table whips out a phone to settle an argument I think of Great Aunt Signe and buttermilk."

David Bateman: "There is an episode of 'How I Met Your Mother' which visually depicts exactly this. The group is arguing, talking and raising points to defend themselves. Then the next clip has a post-smartphone date. They are all looking at their phones and just saying yes, with little to no conversation. Quite funny."

Comments

[Tim Bradshaw]

The Crimean war is very important to the history of photography, due to Roger Fenton, who took some of the earliest (the earliest?) war photographs during the course of the war. And, inevitably, some of them are at least misleadingly titled and may be staged: he called the photograph 'valley of the shadow of death' even though it was not, in fact, that valley, and there is some question that he may have moved canonballs into one version (there is a version with snd a version without thrm, and the version with them seems to have been twken later).

[Steve Jacob]

I predict the 'new' Nikon will be a very Nikony version of a Sony A7R with a Nikony version of the same sensor.

MF? Doubtful given that they promised a converter to use with existing Nikon lenses.

Other than that, WTFK?

[Dean Forbes]

It will be an entirely new format called LTFFBNMF: Larger than full frame but not medium format.

[Richard Man]

To me, the most exciting camera rumor was the Epson R-D1. It was released literally just a few months after Leica claiming that a digital M-mount could not be done (at that time). I even had my wife translated the kana that read "access ramp" wondering what the heck was that about, before realizing that it's access lamp (LED).

[Robert Harshman]

While that would be great for us, I've seen not one rumor that says this. And it would be a very high priced full entry in ML as it would have to be priced much higher than the D850 or the D850 would suddenly be finally in-stock at major online camera sites. The D850 has probably been the most out of stock Nikon ever in the US. It's that good, so it's very hard to see a new Nikon ML system going beyond that. Perhaps meeting it in many way, but a MF ML camera - if you want to bet on it, I'm in.

[Max Young]

Bo Derek president of Harvard? Haven’t heard that one before. And MX5 ND? Nah I’ll stick with my 2006 NC.

Canikon mirrorless? Mmmmmm. T’will no doubt have a sensor and some buttons, but will it be good? Maybe. Maybe not. As Moe Howard used to say, “we shall see, we shall see.”

[Richard Parkin]

I’m no expert but I think the absence of lances in the painting would be a clue that it’s not the Light Brigade. Staying off topic and musical and linking the two battles of Waterloo and Balaclava, you can hear what the bugle call sounded like at the Charge. Trumpeter Landfried (aka Landfrey) who was a Light Brigade bugler at the Charge made a recording in 1890 on a Waterloo bugle in aid of veterans of the Light Brigade who had fallen on hard times. See here and hear: https://archive.org/details/EDIS-SWDPC-01-04

[Harry Lew]

Being heavily invested in Sony full-frame mirrorless cameras and lenses, I'm kind of agnostic on Nikon's imminent entry. But your comment on the Crimean War caught my interest. Some might argue a third good thing came out of that War: Roger Fenton's photographs, which supposedly are the first war photographs in the history of the medium. https://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/roger-fenton-the-first-great-war-photographer/ He also sparked a heated debate 160 years later about whether he staged one of his photos (the one named after the Tennyson poem you referenced and which featured cannon balls scattered on a road). The debate played out in a Susan Sontag book, whose title I forget, and in the recent Errol Morris book, Believing Is Seeing.

[Bob F.]

It's only distantly related to the post, but...

George McDonald Fraser's "Flashman at the Charge" gives a terrifically funny picture of the chaos and stupidity of the Crimean War. If you're new to the Flashman books, be sure to keep a finger in the references and read every footnote fully to enjoy the stories.

[Ernie Van Veen]

According to wikipedia: "The first mirrorless camera commercially marketed was the Epson R-D1 (released in 2004), followed by the Leica M8. The Micro Four Thirds system, whose first camera was the Panasonic Lumix DMC-G1, was released in Japan in October 2008." - Yup, I'm THAT guy... I looked it up.

[Len Metcalf]

But Mike, I so want to wish for my new mirrorless square sensor monochrome camera that sees in the dark with ten stop sensor shift image stabilisation and the worlds fastest lenses and the creamiest Bokeh ever.

Personally, I don’t get the arguments either. A waste of energy in my opinion too. It’s unfortunate that the internet makes it easier for some to hide behind usernames, who love to stir the pot.

If I was a Nikon fanboy, I am sure I would be excited though.

[c.d.embrey]

The Ur-Leica didn't have a mirror. Does that make it the first full frame mirrorless camera 8-)

[Ross A]

Mike-you poor guy, you’ve got g.a.s. for stereo equipment and photography too. Oh man, sorry to hear.

Mine is cars, motorcycles and photography, so I’m not sure that’s any better, in fact it isn’t.

[Will Furniss]

"leaving naught but a wisp of smoke hanging in the air. Which was soon obliterated by the evening breeze." --- Now that's some word smithing!

[Y.B. Hudson III]

Waiting for the disappointments! Like no dedicated knobs on the radio, or a stupid tablet in the middle of a fabulous pristine leather dash, and where are the window cranks? Eye can’t wait. Bring it on Nikon.

[Tim Auger]

Trying in a serious way to understand the Boer War in the context of Africa as a whole is not exactly a trivial challenge either!

As light intellectual exercise, try 'The Origins of the First World War'.

[Stephen Scharf]

While a lot of the speculation has been on the Nikon being FF and/or MF, the one format no one, with the notable exception of Thom Hogan, seems to discussing is APS-C. Which is much more likely than a MF mirrorless Nikon, because there is more revenue to be had in a mirrorless APS-C Nikon in the U.S. than a medium-format mirrorless camera.

[Mike Plews]

I heard it is going to be called the Nikkorexomat FXXX and will only be available in pink leather with a fixed 43 to 86mm zoom, Going back to bed now.

[Alex]

The charge of the Scots Greys (2nd Dragoons) at Waterloo.

[Terry E. Manning]

I love that joke. More young bulls should heed the advice given therein.

[David Comdico]

At the beginning of the summer I bought a mirrorless camera. I thought about first waiting to see what Nikon would unveil but instead I followed my instincts and looked away from the shiny, glittering object on the horizon. What I bought instead is a dinosaur in digital years but it's the first digital camera I've really bonded with since the Nikon D40 - the Leica M9.

Some of the early rumors were that Nikon would release a rangefinder mirrorless, like a digital version of the SP. That does not seem to be the case. Wisp of smoke indeed. Still, I think whatever Nikon ends up releasing is going to be interesting, but I don't think I will be a customer - even though I have a lot of Nikon gear and probably part of the customer segment they were targeting. But I do hope that the camera is a success.

[Dave Underwood]

Mike, you’re experiencing a sense of déjà moo. It’s the feeling that you’ve heard that bull before.

[Jock Elliott]

Let's walk down the hill and photograph them all.

[William]

How are FX and MF mutually exclusive? The mount seems large enough to support digital MF sensor ares. And legacy FX, AIS and even AI lenses would certainly be possible.

There could be both a MF and a FX product line. The FX could arrive first with the MF following. There could even be a mirrorless body square format sensor.

[HABS HAER Photographer Stephen Schafer]

Have you seen the new mirrorlesses from Sinar, Linhof And Cambo?
Link to flickr photo
https://flic.kr/p/LkssGB

- Stephen Schafer

[Richard S.]

@Tom Passin: that reminds me so much of a friend who went on holiday in the France countryside. Half way through the holiday he had an argument with his wife about what day it was. He won the argument. It didn't prevent panic ensuing when on "last-but-one-day" of the holiday the cottage owner came round to ask why they hadn't left yet as the next tenant was arriving in half-an-hour...

@Dave Underwood: like it!

[subroto mukerji]

Earlier, we had the bull about the Nikon 1, then we were treated to the KeyMission 360 bovine wonder, and now here come the Z cameras, horns locked.
Poor Nikon. Once upon a time, their tagline was a roar ('We take the world's greatest pictures' - and they really did, too); now it's bleat ('At the heart of the image').
As soon as the 'Z' cameras are in the pipeline, Sony will put them under the ground quickly with a sub-$2,000 A7IV and even more lenses. Nikon has had its day. What we are witnessing is the final stages in the death throes of a once-great firm--no, a legend called Nippon Kogaku KK--that descended to earth as a corporation and stultified into a monolithic behemoth, an insensitive, mindless juggernaut.
Tom Paine said that Burke pitied the plumage but forgot the dying bird. I do not forget, but alas! Evolution is merciless...

[Francisco Cubas]

The other good thing that came out of the Crimean War was the "Sevastopol Sketches", written by some young russian Count, who later used his experiences to write "War and Peace".

[John Ironside]

Another Florence Nightingale achievement was that she was a pioneer in gathering and understanding health statistics and the use of graphical presentations to make sure that non-experts, like politicians, couldn't fail to understand them.