Long Days and Sleepless Nights

Regarding the "Recommended Cameras" list below, don't forget that we're in the calm before a storm. Three cameras, all expected in the Fall, stand a chance of creating a new category (the < pro FF DSLR, previously the exclusive province of the Canon 5D). They might shake up the higher end of the camera market considerably, even affecting the lower end of the present medium-format digital back market.

Expected are the full-frame, high-pixel-count Sony A900; at least one new high-end, full-frame camera from Nikon (although whether it will be a smaller, "detuned" D3—the road version of the pro race car—or a counterpart to the Sony, possibly even using the same sensor—or both—I don't know); and a replacement from Canon for the 5D.

There have been various leaks, rumors, and "pre-announcements," most visibly from Sony, which anticipates a September release for the A900. I should state that I don't have any inside information—well, I don't have any real information at all, "inside" or not—and I'm not under any non-disclosure constraint. I don't know anything I'm withholding. But I'm going to venture to guess that this is a stressful, high-tension stretch of time for the relevant teams at the three manufacturers. They're all jumping on more or less the same market (full-frame, pro-am) at the same time. They're probably well aware that their new cameras are going to be competing with each other. There is probably great interest at each company in what the other companies are doing, when they're going to release, and what each other's pricing will be. Looming as a warning to complacency is what happened to the Canon 1D Mark III when it came out, when early problems created headaches and bad publicity for the company—nobody wants a launch before the product is truly ready, I'm sure! Long days and sleepless nights indeed.

I imagine it's safe to say that all three cameras will be shipping prior to next Christmas—that is, if they can be, given the constraints of what it takes to produce them. 2008 has been fun so far. It will only get better.

(A favor—please don't post links to rumors in the comments.)

________________________

Mike

UPDATE: Nikonrumors.com has posted specs for an upcoming Nikon D700 and Chasseur d'Images in France has seconded the rumors. A July 1 intro date is being bandied about. The specs show a smaller, lighter camera with the D3's FX (full-frame), 12.1-MP sensor—pretty much the "FX-L" I wrote about here.

A digital F100? Looking like it. And if so, bravo.  (Thanks to Andre)

Featured Comment by Geoff Wittig: "Popular Photography reports this month that manufacturers expect to sell 9 million DSLRs in 2008. This will exceed the peak year of 35mm film SLR sales (8 million) in 1984. A large majority of those DSLRs will be entry level cameras, but there's a 'halo effect' for a high-end full frame camera; enthusiasts are more willing to buy into a system that has a top quality flagship camera than one that places a ceiling on their future aspirations. (Mind you, we're talking about perception here. Seems like anything much beyond 16 megapixels for now exceeds practical utility.) Nikon and Canon already have street cred., but a circa 25 megapixel Sony will make the former Minolta line a lot more appealing to first-timers. Just my 2 cents."

Comments

[Peter in Bangkok]

I just know that my 5D will "still work" should there be a new one on the market! Not a rumour just a fact.

[switters]

As long as we're talking rumors, the president of Sigma has also gone on record saying there will be a DP2 and DP3. One of these may have a zoom, and the speculation on the other is that it may complement the focal length of the DP1; something like a 40mm f2.0.

If they address the deficiencies of the DP1 and the zoom lens they use is nearly as high-quality as the DP1's, that's a revolution in its own right. Perhaps a smaller market segment (or perhaps not), but revolutionary nonetheless.

[ron]

Will they really compete with each other? With the investment I have in Canon glass, I wouldn't give the other two a second look.

For how many people would one of these bodies be an entree into the manufacturer's line?

[Grega]

Quoting Ron:
For how many people would one of these bodies be an entree into the manufacturer's line?
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You make a point. However, the number of people that make such bodies their first DSLR purchase might be far greater than common sense would suggest.

[Michael]

One wonders how many photo hobbyists will use these new cameras as an excuse to avoid the tough decisions needed to improve the quality of their photographs using their present equipment by upgrading to the newer better camera which will keep them occupied learning all the new features and spending too much time on internet forums discussing every minutia of the new purchase.
I've been strong willed enough thank goodness to avoid falling for the temptations of Nikon/Canon's last batch of goodies in the DSLR range. I only hope my "higher power" will protect me from the next batch!

[John Sarsgard]

Full disclosure: I'm a very happy 5d user for about two years. I think the three need to announce for three different reasons. Nikon users will welcome a backup camera for the D3, and it fills a hole in the Nikon product line, a hole that must be filled as part of their catchup to Canon for the photojournalist and other pro markets. Backup cameras work out much better when they're the same aspect ratio as the primary camera. Canon has sold many 5ds, and it's very long in the tooth. The have to upgrade it to remain credible. The current price of the 5d has shrunk what were once surely great profit margins. And Sony....it's a long term thing. They want to be a fully credible pro choice long term, and since they make sensors, no surprise. They can't get there without FF. With FF and the Minolta lens legacy, they've got a good chance at gradually getting a good part of the high end market. End of rant.

[Ctein]

Dear Michael,

Oh, probably about the same percentage who did that every time there was some new film released or wonderful new soup for developing film (which was a couple of times a year).

And why do we care? If that's what people enjoy about the hobby, let them. I think the whole point of photography is to make cool photographs (as obviously you do), but there's a large cadre of hobbyists for whom the point has been the craft and the equipment and the toys. And let's face it, without them supporting the manufacturers, we wouldn't benefit from such rapid improvement of products.

So let them have their fun. It doesn't hurt us and we get fringe benefits.

~ pax \ Ctein
[ please excuse any word salad. MacSpeech in training! ]
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-- Ctein's online Gallery http://ctein.com
-- Digital restorations http://photo-repair.com
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[Ctein]

Dear Mike,

An even stronger cautionary tale than the Canon was the Kodak DCS 14n. Short-timers may forget that for a good decade Kodak owned the high-end digital camera business. They set the standards for quality and they made the very best cameras and you paid accordingly (their price point was $15,000 for the top-tier). They had a string of remarkable and groundbreaking successes, both in terms of technology and image quality. In a complex arena where they had made several strategic missteps (Kodak branded magnetic media, Photo CD), they had done this spectacularly well.

The DCS 14n was pushed out the door at least six months (maybe a year) early, to try to steal the thunder from its 11 megapixel competitor. That meant that some serious compromises were made, most especially in the quality of the sensor, which was entirely subpar by the standards that pros reasonably expected from Kodak.

The strategy backfired so badly, from vaporware to producing a post-release upgrade (too expensive, too late) that in my opinion it was a substantial factor, maybe even the major factor, in Kodak ultimately withdrawing from the premium camera market.

~ pax \ Ctein
[ please excuse any word salad. MacSpeech in training! ]
======================================
-- Ctein's online Gallery http://ctein.com
-- Digital restorations http://photo-repair.com
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[John Camp]

I may be completely wrong about this, but my feeling is that Nikon is making a marketing mistake, if the specs are true -- the D700 will badly hurt the D3 sales, which, as I understand it, are really going strong. The biggest problem with the D3, for pro or non-pro, is the size of the thing. If the D700 is as robust as the D300, and has the D3 sensor, I can't imagine why anybody would buy the D3. The advantages of it would be only at the margins (battery life, perhaps a more intricate auto-focus), and easily worked around.

As for the D700 working as a backup to the D3, I have a D300 as a backup, and I prefer it that way -- I like the two different sensor sizes, because it gives me that 1.5x factor with 12mp in each FOV. With three f2.8 zooms, I can cover an FOV of 12-300 between the two bodies and three lenses.

JC

[nars]

I think the point of photography is to be paralyzed by choices so that you never get around to taking pictures but spend all your money trying out different cameras.

[Mike]

Quoting Grega

You make a point. However, the number of people that make such bodies their first DSLR purchase might be far greater than common sense would suggest.

My first dslr was a 5D and I'm still using it. I tried a 'superzoom' P&S for a nearly a year before buying the 5D, and carried on using my AE1 alongside. Since I bought the 5D the Ae1 rarely sees any use, although I did give it some exercise in the last couple of weeks. I also sometimes use a Zorki!

Mike