There's not a lot of point to polls like yesterday's. The bell curve is right where I thought it would be, right where it should be. (There's even a little shelf in the bell curve at 22–24 MP, representing D3x/A900 aspirations.) All I was wondering was whether 18 MP in a Rebel is really going to be a significant draw. That premise looks a little soft, but still safe.
Polls like this one basically represent people saying "What I've got right now is perfect for me...right now." Thom Hogan uses polls for projections—that is, he knows that the curve would have peaked at a lower number if the poll had been taken five years ago, and he knows it will peak at a higher number five years from now. He looks at the rate of change. Because really, pixel counts (given today's technology continuing unchanged) are almost arbitrary numbers—like computing power and drive space, the numbers are normalized only for now, only in terms of this point in the march of progress. At one point, six megapixels was the bleeding-edge aspirational number, and now, only 2.7% of poll respondents would pick that level. (And I'm kind of surprised it's that high.) The number has moved all the way through the bell curve.
Complicating the projections for cameramakers, though, is that the bell curves don't move infinitely. At some point every sensor will have enough resolution, and people will stop caring. Then, the manufacturer who invests in a bet that more megapixels will continue to move product down the road (just because more megapixels have moved product up till then) will be out of luck. Predicting that point of sufficiency and not investing too much in overshooting it is one of the dicier tricks of product design. (An egregious example of that kind of overshoot on the part of manufacturers: APS. Pronounced "oops.")
Looks like most people are pretty happy with what they have now, though.